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Central Asia won’t blow apart

News reports coming from Afghanistan are getting increasingly disturbing. The first to pour oil on the flames was Jalaluddin Hakkani, who delivered his video address at the time of the NATO summit in Bucharest. At a moment when the alliance was deciding to strike at the Taliban with fresh force, the mujahideen leader sought by all American secret services urged “everyone to rise in struggle against U.S.-led forces in Afghanistan.” And threatened all its 37 alli es, i.e. NATO.

Hakkani’s video has shown that the Taliban and their allies are preparing for an unprecedented spring offensive. The plans the terrorists are nurturing and the targets the suicide bombers have chosen are anybody’s guess. In a way, the whole Central Asia feels unprotected, particularly the nations that are members of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) and which have had military bases and airports of the coalition on their territories since the anti-terrorist operation was launched. The war seems to have no end. The Americans are keeping their Manas Air Base in Kyrgyzstan for an indefinite period, continuing their search for other facilities. The Bundeswehr has rented a base in Termez, Uzbekistan. So if the Taliban decide to carry the fight into Kyrgyzstan or Uzbekistan, the people living there will have every reason to fear for their lives.

And threats come not only from Afghanistan. Dangers are also lurking in Central Asia itself. Water, or rather its shortage, could become the apple of discord between its countries. Similar conflicts have already flared up recently. Take the latest attempt to solve the water issue by force on the border between Tajikistan and Batken, Kyrgyzstan’s southern-most area. Money flowing into Kyrgyzstan from Kazakhstan also remains the thorn in the flesh for Kyrgyzstan. Kyrgyz society feels antagonistic towards its more successful neighbour, which is expressed in anti-Kazakh slogans.

On the other hand, the Central Asian countries are feeling wanted in the world. The United States, Europe and China make no bones about the fact. Their delegations continue to come and go.

Last week very senior officials from the European Union visited the most closed Central Asian country, something that was impossible in the past. The Old World is so worried over its energy security that it ignored much vaunted “democratic values” at a recent conference in Ashgabad. Clearly Turkmen gas is more important. Inspired by talks in Ashgabad, Benita Ferrero-Waldner, European Commissioner for External Relations and European Neighbourhood Policy, hastened to assure that Turkmenistan was ready to transport natural gas to Europe through the long-distance pipeline Nabucco, bypassing Russia. Turkmen media even had to specify, saying that President Berdymukhammedov made no mention of Nabucco.

Despite all this, the Turkmen leader is becoming a popular figure in Europe. Now Nicolas Sarkozy has invited him to visit France.

This interest shown by at least three sides cannot but keep the five Central Asian countries feeling buoyed-up. The oil-rich nations feel superior, the oil-poor, envious. Now China has added its portion of fuel to the fire with the situation in Tibet. The example of restive monks is encouraging separatist sentiments among some ethnic groups unhappy about their status in Central Asia. Challenges coming from these centres of power do not yet make the situation in the region more explosive, but they certainly do not make it more peaceful.

However, for all the seeming instability in the Central Asian republics, their leaders are firmly in control, and skilfully steer round sharp angles at meetings to hide mutual dislike from non-insiders. Soon, despite a difficult investment situation, Kyrgyz President Bakiyev will arrive in Kazakhstan to strike a profitable swap deal involving several high-end resorts on Lake Issyk Kul.

Western experts seem to have lost all illusions about colour revolutions in Central Asia. Bishkek’s experience in spring 2005 had a discouraging effect. Political lecturing is giving way to economic pragmatism. But while the United States, the European Union and even China are taking great pains to find a common language with their governments and gain an insight into the closed mentality of the Central Asian peoples, Russia is in a strategically better position. Almost 200 years of shared history, the Russian language still in use as a means of communication, and over 10 million Russian speakers firmly rooted in Asia provide certain advantages.

The independent Central Asian republics did not appeal to the Russian establishment at first. Ukraine, Belarus and the Caucasus claimed more attention and focus. Now the heat is off, but Central Asia is still sending signals for closer cooperation. Russian politicians and businessmen have seen a zone of vital interest in the area, perhaps not without prodding from Western and Chinese partners seeking to get a foothold in Central Asia.

If anything, the battle for Central Asia is only beginning. The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation and the Collective Security Treaty Organisation, which are positioning themselves there, are quite able to freeze the situation in Central Asia and control it in the future. It is a fact that terrorist incursions into Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan stopped once the CSTO sent Russian aircraft to Kant as part of a collective rapid deployment force. It would also make sense to gain a foothold in the Ferghana Valley in southern Kyrgyzstan, one of the most unruly areas in the region, as Kyrgyz authorities and some Russian military experts say.

At any rate, Dmitry Medvedev’s choice of Astana for his first official visit as president is symptomatic. And, hopefully, it will be not just symbolic but also productive. Russia must remain the most reliable and dependable partner for Central Asia. And this does not have to be at the expense of good relations with western countries. It is not by chance that the Russian eagle is two-headed. — RIA Novosti

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