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Deeper into the quagmire

The United States appears determined to dig itself deeper into the hole that is Iraq. Washington asserted that it was on the right course after achieving some success in its drive against Sunni insurgents towards the end of 2007. But the occupying army opened a second front when it decided to back the Iraqi government’s drive against the militia led by the firebrand cleric Moqtada al Sadr. The trouble began in Basra in March this year when Prime Minister Nouri al Mal iki sent in his army to disarm the Sadrists and oust them from the pockets they controlled in the city. With the government troops not only failing to make headway but also deserting in droves, Mr. Maliki asked for air and artillery support from the occupation forces. While the Sadrists’ Mahdi Army did cede control over Basra by mid-April, it does not appear to have done so under military pressure alone. There is credible evidence that a group of Iraqi parliamentarians travelled to Tehran to request the Iranian government to use its influence. The Basra success, in whatever way it was achieved, seems to have gone to Mr. Maliki’s head since he ordered his army to carry out another operation against the Sadrists’ stronghold in Baghdad. But the Iraqi Prime Minister, presumably acting on the advice of U.S. officials, has shown more prudence this time round. The Iraqi army is trying to isolate and pacify Sadr City with close support from the occupation troops.

The Iraqi government is not likely to meet with much success in its Baghdad operations. Firstly, the Sadrists have a stranglehold over the Shias living in the capital while they were only one of four formations vying for this community’s support in Basra. Secondly, the forces invading the densely packed Sadr City cannot use too much force since civilian casualties could be unconscionably high in that event. Thirdly, the Iranians have no interest in interfering in this situation. In Basra, the party that benefited the most from the Sadrists’ defeat was the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq. This formation, a Shia group closely linked with Tehran, is bent on carving out a unified and autonomous southern province, while the Sadrists were at best lukewarm towards this particular project. An oil-rich province largely free of Baghdad’s control would serve Iranian interests. For this reason, Iran was willing to throw its weight behind the ISCI in Basra. However, Tehran has nothing to gain but much to lose by the Sadrists’ defeat in Baghdad. As Mr. Maliki and the U.S. venture deeper into Sadr City, they are not likely to find a helpful hand to pull them out of the quagmire.

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