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Hillary must win decisively

Philadelphia/Washington: Barack Obama on Monday effectively conceded that he would not win the crucial Democratic primary in Pennsylvania, but said he expected to do well enough to cast doubt on Hillary Clinton’s ability to stay in the race.

Mr. Obama, who has established an almost unassailable lead in the hard-fought contest, said: “I’m not predicting a win.” But he added: “I’m predicting it’s going to be close and that we are going to do a lot better than people expect.”

Ms. Clinton, after a string of defeats, needs more than just victory to resuscitate her campaign: she must win by 10 percentage points or more to convince the Democratic leadership she should stay in the race. Both candidates engaged in a frenetic last-minute campaigning across the State on Monday before the first primary between them for more than six weeks.

But even if Ms. Clinton were to secure the outsize victory she needs in Pennsylvania, figures for campaigning funding released on Monday raised questions about her ability to fight on for much longer. Mr. Obama raised more than twice as much as Ms. Clinton last month, entering April with $42 million in the bank. Although she raised $20 million in March, the devastating disclosure was that she was staggering along with some $10.3 million of debt.

Mr. Obama has been outspending Ms. Clinton by two or three to one on TV advertising and mailshots — some of which include DVDs.

Amid the most acrimonious exchanges and attack ads of the campaign, Mr. Obama on Monday accused the Clinton team of adopting the kind of scare tactics and lies the Republicans had used against the Clintons themselves in the White House.

An estimated 8 million voters are expected to cast ballots in what is one of the biggest States in the country.

According to an apparent leak of Ms. Clinton’s internal polling to the Drudge Report on Monday, she could secure victory by 10 percentage points or more. A State-wide poll by Quinnipiac university, in Connecticut, put her on 51 per cent to Mr. Obama’s 42 per cent, while one by Suffolk university, Boston, put Ms. Clinton on 52 per cent to his 42 per cent. The Clinton team, if she wins well, will try to persuade the remaining 300 undecided “super delegates” — Congress members and others who vote for the nominee — that she has won seven of the eight big States and that no Democrat over the last 40 years has lost Pennsylvania in a primary and gone on to win the presidency. Though Ms. Clinton has won seven of the eight big States, Mr. Obama has won 28 States to Ms. Clinton’s 14. She now hopes a big turnout could help her narrow the gap in the popular vote and possibly even overtake him. At present, he has 13.3 million votes to her 12.6 million. With a good win behind her, she is hopeful of going on to take at least four of the remaining nine contests: Indiana, West Virginia, Kentucky, and Puerto Rico. — ©Guardian Newspapers Limited, 2008

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