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Keeping the race alive

Hillary Rodham Clinton won the April 23 Pennsylvania Democratic primary by a handsome 10 percentage point margin over Barack Obama. Ms Clinton’s win of her third big state in a row however has not helped her reduce significantly Mr. Obama’s overall lead in terms of both popular vote and pledged delegates. Such an outcome was expected since it has been clear for some time that the shape of the nomination contest would remain more or less unchanged until the end of the primary season. It had also become clear that the nomination would not be decided by the party’s grass-roots supporters since their votes are unlikely to deliver the 2,025 delegates needed for victory to either candidate. The outcome is almost certainly going to be settled by the party’s office-bearers and elected officials. Ms Clinton’s last remaining hope lies in convincing a significant majority of these 796 super-delegates that she and not Mr. Obama would prove the stronger contender against the Republican nominee John McCain in the 2008 presidential election. The New York Senator does have arguments in support of her claim. She has won nearly all the big, industrialised states (bar Mr. Obama’s home state of Illinois) that traditionally lean Democratic. She has consistently drawn support from the less educated, economically weak, and working class voters who form the party’s core support base; and, she has shown the toughness and resilience to remain in the race despite being written off several times.

One hidden card working in Ms Clinton’s favour is the consistent evidence that she has greater resonance with blue-collar voters who are critical elements in a Democratic victory in November. The fear of a race divide working in favour of the Republican candidate in November might influence the calculations of the super-delegates. The Republicans have shown in elections past that they have no compunctions about playing the race card and Mr. McCain, for all his apparent decency, might not be able to hold back the more rabid among his party people. Democratic super-delegates from the swing states at present fancy their chances in gubernatorial, congressional and other electoral contests to be held in November. They might apprehend that Republican tactics could hurt if Mr. Obama is at the top of the national ticket. But there is another side to the story. Can the super-delegates deny Mr. Obama the nomination despite his winning more states, a greater share of the popular vote, and a larger number of those elected to participate in the party convention? If they do so, they will be accused of acting as a cabal strangling the spirit of democracy. Even worse, they could alienate African-American voters who traditionally support the Democrats rather than the Republicans.

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