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Coalition blues

The speedy resolution of the crisis sparked off by Gopinath Munde’s resignation from party posts highlights the alacrity of the Bharatiya Janata party in pre-empting any sort of political meltdown. Mollifying Mr. Munde was a necessity for the BJP for more than one reason. With the 15th general election barely a year away, the importance of Maharashtra, which sends up 48 MPs, cannot be over-emphasised. Further, the principal opposition party is already fighting on too many fronts. In Bihar, it is threatened by internal strife while in Karnataka, its alliance partner, the Janata Dal(U) is on the warpath over sharing of seats in the upcoming Assembly election. Adding to its woes is the decline of the BJP’s prospects in Maharashtra since the 2004 Lok Sabha election when it had won 25 seats in alliance with the Shiv Sena. A real blow to the party was the loss of its key strategist in the State, Pramod Mahajan, Mr. Munde’s brother-in-law. Therefore it was all the more necessary to placate Mr. Munde by meeting his demand as regards the president of the Mumbai party unit. By effecting this truce, the BJP clearly hopes to contain any potential damage to its prospects in the State.

Among India’s political parties, the BJP alone has succeeded in projecting the myth that it has the killer instinct — the ability to set a target and achieve it with single-minded resolve. The party has its sights firmly fixed on the next election, confident that under the leadership of Lal Krishna Advani, it will be able to present a formidable challenge to the United Progressive Alliance. Yet paradoxically, the more the BJP family exerts itself to put the NDA house in order, the more fragile does the alliance seem. The crisis is in part due to the BJP’s perception that its partners have grown at its expense. In Bihar, it has conceded the senior position to the Nitish Kumar-led JD(U). In Orissa, the Biju Janata Dal is similarly placed vis-À-vis the BJP. It is this insecurity that has fuelled the BJP’s rebuff to the JD(U) in Karnataka. The JD(U) contends that, as the only other national party in the NDA, it deserves to be treated with greater respect. Since 2002, as many as nine allies have parted ways with the BJP. The Trinamool Congress is on the verge of quitting the alliance. The BJP can annoy the JD(U), easily its most trusted partner, only at its own peril. The BJP’s best hopes of returning to power in the Centre depend vitally on its tactical skills and strategic ability to manage its relations with its allies in the NDA. Unless it reconstructs a cohesive coalition, the BJP’s road to power will be a steep climb.

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