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Obama gains momentum

With Barack Obama’s lead widening in the fight for the Democratic Party nomination for the 2008 U.S. presidential election, Hillary Rodham Clinton’s bid appears to be weakening by the day. The narrow win by Ms Clinton of the Indiana primary even as she lost resoundingly to Mr. Obama in North Carolina on May 6 has failed to deliver the decisive turnaround in momentum that she needed to surge within touching distance of the front-runner. The large turnout of Afri can-Americans in North Carolina ensured that the first of their ethnicity with a realistic shot at the White House carried the state with a 14 percentage point lead. Mr. Obama has once again widened the popular vote gap that Ms Clinton had narrowed earlier through victories in the Ohio and Pennsylvania primaries. The Illinois Senator should be able to pick up the bulk of the 187 pledged delegates at stake in the May 6 primaries. Ms Clinton had clearly miscalculated that her wins in the big swing States would persuade the super-delegates — party office-bearers and those elected on its ticket — to line up behind her. While she still retains a slim lead in the super-delegate count, the drift over the past fortnight has been in favour of her opponent.

With the remaining six nominating contests expected to be split evenly, it is unlikely that either candidate will garner the support of the 2,025 delegates needed to clinch the nomination by the end of the primary season. The nomination will eventually be decided by the 270 super-delegates who remain uncommitted. The main argument with which Ms Clinton has been trying to convince the fence-sitters in the Democratic Party is that she is likely to be more effective in taking on the Republican nominee in the November election. But this argument appears to have cut less ice with the Democratic delegates, more of whom are moving to Mr. Obama. The Clinton campaign is also trying to convince the party’s Rules and Byelaws Committee to allow the participation in the Denver convention of the 366 delegates who have been notionally selected by voters in Florida and Michigan. Ms Clinton hopes that a rule change will help her gain a small lead in the delegate count and substantially narrow the popular vote margin. Such an outcome, she believes, will induce the super-delegates to rethink their options. But the fact that the Obama-Clinton contest still remains unresolved, giving the Democratic Party very little lead time to have its presidential nominee launch an effective campaign against the Republican opponent this November, does not bode well for the party’s prospects.

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