The Hindu : Karnataka / Bangalore News : Dalit votes may split this time around too

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Friday, May 09, 2008
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Karnataka

Karnataka - Bangalore

Dalit votes may split this time around too

Bageshree S.

Dalits account for 23.5 per cent of the population in State
A split Dalit vote will help BJP the most

Bangalore: How will the votes of Dalits — who account for 23.5 per cent of the total population — impact the outcome of elections in Karnataka?

A few elections ago, the answer would have been straight-forward: they would have of course voted for the Congress. But the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) factor and the churning within other parties who are eyeing the same section of voters have rendered the situation more fluid this time.

In the last elections, the BSP made an undeniable dent in the Congress self-assurance that the minority and the Dalit votes rested with them. The BSP divided the Dalit vote share, resulting in the defeat of the Congress candidate. In many constituencies where the BSP managed to get more than 3,000 votes, the Congress lost narrowly, in about 25 constituencies. Anekal (reserved) constituency was a classic example of the “BSP factor.” The party’s former State chief B. Gopal got 24,841 votes. While the BJP won with 63,023 votes, the Congress got 60,847 votes, losing by a narrow margin.

On the other hand, the BJP has also been making efforts to build a base among the Dalit communities. There is some visible impact, especially in the urban pockets where youths have been recruited. However, the fact that Karnataka has a history of sustained backward class and Dalit movement, which has opposed the ideological positions of the BJP, has been a deterrent to the party despite its effort to shed its image of an “upper-caste” party.

This time too, the BSP is expected to exert a huge influence on the Dalit vote-share. P.G.R. Sindhia, national general secretary of the BSP, south, believes that they expect to increase the overall vote share to between seven and 15 per cent, as opposed to two per cent in the last elections, thus tilting the balance. With BSP supremo Mayawati is keen on launching the party to the national arena, Karnataka becomes an important player. Mr. Sindhia says that the party base has expanded now and it is not “only a Dalit party.”

But will the fact that the BSP is underplaying its earlier “anti-Manuvadi” agenda cut both ways? Will it make the Dalits wary of BSP’s brand of politics? Mr. Sindhia believes that it will not, considering the example in Uttar Pradesh. This pattern, he believes, can be replicated. He, in fact, dismisses this argument as no more than “Congress propaganda.” Whether the Uttar Pradesh model can be “replicated” in a State with different caste and class equations compared with Uttar Pradesh is a moot question.

New organisation

Interestingly, this election has seen the birth of Janapara Rajakeeya Ranga, an umbrella organisation of which prominent Dalit leaders such as Devanooru Mahadeva and Indudhar Honnapura are part. The Ranga, which also has farmers’ groups and Left parties under its banner, has decided to support the Congress in all constituencies where their candidates are not directly participating. Mr. Honnapura says that it is “inevitable in this election to defeat the BJP, which is a communal party, and the Janata Dal (Secular), which facilitated the strengthening of the BJP through an electoral alliance.” A split Dalit vote will help BJP the most.

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