Karnataka - Belgaum   

Roller-coaster ride for Congress

Belgaum: With the first phase of elections for 89 Assembly seats ending on Saturday and the focus shifting to the districts that go to polls in the second and third phases, all eyes are on the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) which won eight seats in the last Assembly elections. The political debate is will the Congress re-establish its prowess in the district and whether the Janata Dal (Secular) repeat its performance of winning 14 of the 18 seats in the district in 2004. The Mahrashtra Ekikaran Samiti (MES) hopes to win at least five seats.

As the poll managers and psephologists here grapple to find answers, a look at the previous performance gives some clues.

The Congress has been able to emerge as single largest party in the last 11 elections. The party, which won 14 seats in the 1967 elections, managed to get just two seats in 1985. The Janata Party and then the Janata Dal won 12 seats in 1985 and 11 in 1994 respectively.

In the 1957 elections, when the district had 16 Assembly constituencies, the Congress won six. The number of constituencies went up to 18 in the 1962 elections when the party won 12 seats. It consolidated its position in 1967 by winning 14 seats. In the subsequent elections, the party had a roller-coaster ride winning 12 seats in 1972, 11 in 1978, eight in 1983, two in 1985, 11 in 1989, four in 1994, 10 in 1999 and five in 2004.

After the Janata Dal split into Janata Dal (United) and the Janata Dal (Secular), the Janata Dal (United) won five seats in 1999 elections.

The Janata Dal (Secular) managed to win one seat in 2004.

In the 1983 polls, the Janata Party won in five places and virtually swept 1985 polls by wining in 12 seats (two went to the Congress and the rest to Independents). The Janata Dal could win in only two places in 1989 but won 11 seats in 1994.

The BJP, which opened its account in the district in 1999 because of the divide in the traditional supporters of the Maharashtra Ekikaran Samiti (MES) in the then Uchagaon constituency, sprung a surprise by winning eight seats in 2004 elections.

The MES, which has been either fielding “Independent” candidates or supporting the Marathi-speaking candidates and held sway for long in the boundary constituencies of Nippani, Uchgaon, Belgaum City, Bagewadi and Khanapur, started losing its hold mainly because of groupism among its leaders. It suffered humiliation at the hands of the Congress in 1999 and 2004 elections.

The Nippani seat has been eluding MES since 1972. Yet, it drew consolation from the fact that all the candidates elected from Nippani — irrespective of their party affiliation — were Marathi-speaking. Even the rebels who won against official MES nominees in 1999 polls in Uchgaon and Khanapur were Marathi-speaking.

The Independent candidates won from eight places in the first ever elections held in 1957 but only one in 1962 polls. In the subsequent elections, they won from four places in 1967, three in 1972, five each in 1978 and 1983, four each in 1985 and 1989, three each in 1994 and 2004 and two in 1999.

Interestingly, no national party has been able to break the track record of Independents winning from Khanapur. In all the previous elections, the constituency had been electing independent candidates (read MES or Marathi-speaking candidates).

Also, the Peasants And Workers Party, which had won two seats of the then Belgaum-I and Belgaum-II in 1957, disappeared only to pave the way for MES. The Congress (O) (Nijalingappa group) managed to win in three places in 1972. The Karnataka Rajya Raitha Sangha won a seat in the 1999 elections.

Although the picture in a few Assembly pockets provides clues on prospects of individual contestants, a clear picture is yet to emerge, thanks to the presence of rebels. As of now, there has not been any wave in favour or against any party.

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