The Hindu : National : China missile base larger than expected: study

Online edition of India's National Newspaper
Saturday, May 17, 2008
ePaper | Mobile/PDA Version

National

National

China missile base larger than expected: study

Sandeep Dikshit

NEW DELHI: An analysis of new commercial satellite photos has identified a larger deployment of medium range nuclear missiles in Central China with the capability to attack Russia and north India including New Delhi, the Federation of American Scientists (FAS) has reported.

A study by Hans Kristensen concedes that the deployment is not new and the U.S. intelligence has known for years that the sites are for targeting Russia and India. But the new analysis reveals a significantly larger deployment area than was previously known, different types of launch pads, command and control facilities and missile deployment equipment at a large facility.

Why then is the information being given out now? According to the scientist, as the U.S. keeps details of China’s missile deployment secret, he has taken upon himself to conduct an analysis of the photographs and provide the “first opportunity for the public to better understand how China operates its mobile ballistic missiles.”

The deployment is in the northern part of the Qinghai province with a total of 58 launch pads “identified” by the scientist over about 2,000 sqkm. There are probably more launch pads and facilities but satellite photos of a couple of areas are not yet available on Google Earth, according to the FAS. From these launch pads DF-21 missiles would be within range of southern Russia and northern India (including New Delhi), but not Japan, Taiwan or Guam.

China is emulating other nuclear states to reduce the vulnerability of its nuclear deterrent by adding mobile missile centres which can disperse and launch quickly, making them harder for others to destroy.

Mobile missiles might make it more difficult to carry out a successful first strike to destroy all the launchers, but it does not make the force invulnerable. If hidden inside a cave, it is relatively simple to seal off the entrance and trap the launchers inside. Once out in the open, mobile launchers can move and try to hide, but they are highly vulnerable to the blast effect of a nuclear weapon.

The scientist encapsulates the worry of the U.S. security planners (who have sought complete military dominance over other countries) in this respect: “It would require at least 24 100-kiloton W76 warheads — the load of four Trident II D5 missiles - detonating at a height of burst of 1,250 metres to ensure destruction of all the 58 launch pads identified in these satellite images, plus several more warheads to destroy the bases. Rather than aiming at each pad, war fighters would more likely try to hit the launchers before they dispersed. The mobile nuclear cat and mouse game is on: Chinese planners are trying to hide and U.S. and Russian planners are trying to catch them.”

Printer friendly page
Send this article to Friends by E-Mail

National