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Protecting a fragile peace

The India-Pakistan peace process is again at a tricky pass. Monday’s cross-Line of Control attack on an Indian forward post near Mendhar — the second violation this month of a globally lauded ceasefire, which is a keystone of détente — demonstrates just how fragile the situation has become. Driving this downward spiral are shifts in Pakistani official policy. Over the past several weeks, Islamabad has eased restraints on internationally proscribed or ganisations like the Jaish-e-Mohammad, and set about securing peace with the Taliban. In a recent interview, Pakistan army spokesperson Major General Athar Abbas asserted that his country remained committed to the implementation of the United Nations Security Council resolutions on Jammu and Kashmir — a major departure from President Pervez Musharraf’s conciliatory position, and a repudiation of years of secret diplomacy intended to end the conflict. Convinced that the state apparatus cannot address all the internal crises it faces at once, Pakistan’s military establishment hopes to contain at least one crisis by healing its ruptured relationship with jihadists. But is it something that Pakistan can afford?

Adventures like the recent assaults on Indian forward positions, as well as heightened infiltration, will sooner or later compel some measure of military response by New Delhi. Renewed tensions along the LoC, an inevitable consequence of the direction of Islamabad’s policies, will hurt India. However, they will cost Pakistan far more. As the 2001-2002 confrontation demonstrated to no one’s benefit, even low-grade state-sponsored terrorism can end up precipitating a full-blown military crisis. With its northern army reserve denuded by the demands of fighting in the North West Frontier Province and Balochistan, Pakistan simply cannot afford a crisis on its eastern borders. Moreover, the current policies are provoking the ire of countries other than India. Afghanistan’s Foreign Minister, Rangeen Dafdar Spanta, has denounced as a “wrong and dangerous policy” Islamabad’s “appeasement” of the Taliban. Recently, the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation noted that the attacks on coalition forces in eastern Afghanistan in April 2008 were 52 per cent more than in the same month a year earlier — figures that reflect the ground-level impact of the ‘peace’ efforts. As External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherjee pointed out in Islamabad, an end to terrorism would be an imperative for taking the India-Pakistan peace process forward. India and the world need to persuade the new dispensation in Islamabad that this is not a concession — but a sane measure essential to securing the best interests of the people of Pakistan.

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