Karnataka - Bangalore   

It’s a personal success for Yeddyurappa

Bangalore: The Bharatiya Janata Party may have finally realised its dream — of forming a government on its own in Karnataka, and also establishing a foothold for itself in the south. By winning 31 more seats than it did in the 2004 Assembly elections, in which it was also the largest single party, the BJP improved its tally to 110 — still just short of a simple majority in the House. With the help of two rebel party candidates who managed to win and another independent’s support, it is set to stake its claim on Monday.

In many ways, this victory can be described as a personal success for former Chief Minister B.S. Yeddyurappa, who despite being let down by the then coalition partner — the Janata Dal (S) — geared up for this election from the very day that he had to resign after being Chief Minister for only a week. He straight away went to the people seeking a mandate for the BJP, to give the party a chance to run a government on its own. Though the electorate had not quite given him a clear mandate or majority, the sympathy factor did play a role in the run-up to the elections. That was one of the reasons for the BJP wanting and demanding early elections to the Assembly. The BJP and its chief ministerial candidate know very well that it is not smooth sailing for them.

Once the formalities of government formation are completed, the first test will be to prove its majority on the floor of the House. Given the fact that the Congress and the JD (S) together have 108 members in a House of 224, and three independents who may not ally with the BJP, it will be a tight-rope walk for the BJP that has just 110 members on its own. The game of numbers is likely to haunt the BJP government even after it assumes office.

The election results have also thrown into the open the deep divisions within the dominant Vokkalinga community, in contrast to the Lingayat community that appears to have thrown its weight behind the BJP. A split in the Vokkaliga vote and the consolidation of the Lingayat vote helped the BJP significantly this time.

Analysts believe that a triangular fight has helped the BJP, with a division of the secular vote between the Congress and the JD (S). The Congress and JD (S) did not seek a pre-poll alliance, and hoped to come back to power on its own. Though it has improved its position from 65 to 80 seats, it could not ride back to power. Party functionaries concede that it suffered from internal dissensions and factionalism.

For the JD (S), the elections have been a clear setback. But considering that about 25 MLAs in the erstwhile Assembly deserted the party before this election, it has managed to win 28 of the 33 seats that were still with it.

For the BJP, it will be period of trial and its leaders need to show unity of purpose. The people will be watching its performance in government. But the addition of one more State to its national kitty could come as a morale booster for the party as it prepares for the next round of Assembly elections and beyond that to the Lok Sabha elections.

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