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Talking about the Golan

While no one expects Syria and Israel to reach a peace accord by an early date, the initiation of talks between them has been widely welcomed. Representatives of the two countries set up separate camps in Istanbul and Turkish officials shuttled between them. The West Asian antagonists were believed to have come very close to sealing a deal before the negotiations broke down in 2000. There has been no indication of either side having changed its position on the deal-breakin g issue since then; in fact, the two hardly communicated with each other. Damascus has always maintained that it will not make peace unless Israel returned the whole of the Golan Heights up to the shoreline of Lake Tiberias. Israel has been willing to give up territory captured in the 1967 war but has not specified the extent. Israel insists that it has security concerns and cites as evidence pre-1967 history when Syrian troops would often shell the Galilee Valley. Military experts suggest that these fears are exaggerated. With the most advanced military forces in West Asia, especially a highly sophisticated surveillance system, the Israelis should be able to interdict any military build-up between Damascus and the Golan. The dispute over this territory has much to do with the water and land resources it boasts. The vineyard-owners and cattle-ranchers, who have moved into the area over the last four decades, would make life very difficult for any government to give the territory back to Syria.

Some analysts believe that Tel Aviv’s overtures to Syria could slow down its negotiations with the Palestinians since it has until now followed a strategy of dealing with one neighbour at a time. Israel’s Prime Minister Ehud Olmert asserts that he intends to pursue negotiations on both tracks simultaneously. Mr. Olmert’s government recently facilitated an investment conference in the West Bank that was intended to bolster the position of the Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas. At the same time, it is talking indirectly to Hamas, with Egypt acting as the go-between. The Israel-Hamas negotiations are aimed mainly at easing the confrontation along the seam of the Gaza Strip and do not cover other outstanding issues. Overall, therefore, the Palestinians do have reason to feel that they are being made to await their turn. It might be easier for Israel to make progress on the Syrian track since the issues involved are more clear-cut. However, Mr. Olmert is not likely to be around to see the talks through because investigations are on into charges of bribery against him and he might soon be forced to resign.

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