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Pervez Musharraf assesses his options

The rumours of President Pervez Musharraf’s imminent exit sweeping through Pakistan are a sign that the complex three-man game in progress on the country’s political chessboard is moving towards a conclusion.

There are two schools of thought on the rapidly unfolding developments, and they differ more in nuance than in substance. According to the more widely held view, the two other players, Pakistan People’s Party leader Asif Ali Zardari and the Pakistan Muslim League (N) leader, Nawaz Sharif, have joined hands against General (retd.) Musharraf, forcing him to consider his shrinking options.

Mr. Zardari, who earlier seemed amenable to working with President Musharraf, was forced to do a u-turn because he saw Mr. Sharif, his junior partner in the ruling coalition, running away with the game with his aggressive and populist stand on the issue of the judges. The PPP’s ambiguity on restoring the judges, including deposed Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry, who were dismissed by President Musharraf when he imposed the emergency last year, cost the party and Mr. Zardari dearly.

It led to the failure of the new government to reinstate them through a parliamentary resolution, as agreed by the PPP and the PML(N) through the so-called Bhurban declaration. By withdrawing his party from the cabinet over the government’s failure to keep the deadline on the reinstatement, Mr. Sharif came out as a “man of his word” while Mr. Zardari stood accused of deal-making with President Musharraf and his political cronies.

Mr. Zardari then cut his losses by lashing out against President Musharraf, describing him as a “relic of the past” and an “obstacle” between the people and democracy. Much to the joy of demoralised PPP cadres, Mr. Zardari even said his party did not accept him as a constitutionally elected President.

The PPP quickly followed this up with ambitious proposals for constitutional amendments that would reduce the presidency to a figurehead. Chief among them was the deletion of 58 (2) (B), a clause that empowers a President to dissolve Parliament. Mr. Zardari started looking good again. Mr. Sharif warmed to him once more, declaring that the PPP leader had agreed with him that President Musharraf needs to be ousted.

A meeting between President Musharraf and army chief Ashfaq Parvez Kayani on May 28 set the stage for frenzied speculation that the “drop-scene” of this multiple-act drama was about to commence. Implied in the speculation was that Gen. Kayani had looked his ex-boss “in the eye” and told him plainly that the Pakistan army would not come to his rescue in either of two scenarios: a) if he should move against the government by using his powers to dissolve Parliament and/or declaring martial law; and b) if the government should move to oust him. There were even reports that a plane was standing by to fly Gen. Musharraf away to a “friendly neighbouring country.”

If this is all too complex, try unravelling the more nuanced version. According to this political equivalent of a jalebi, Mr. Zardari is still involved in a balancing act between President Musharraf and Mr. Sharif. He has offered Mr. Sharif the deletion of 58(2) (B) in order to keep him on his side. At the same time, believing that his best interests are tied to Gen. Musharraf’s for the moment, Mr. Zardari wants the stripped-down President to continue in office for some more time.

Reason: his sudden exit at this stage may prompt a mass exodus from his political creation, the Pakistan Muslim League (Q), into the embrace of its parent party, Mr. Sharif’s PML (N). That would dramatically alter the political landscape, leaving the PPP at the mercy of Mr. Sharif. Some also cite the Benazir-Musharraf “deal” that resulted in the National Reconciliation Ordinance — it has wiped Mr. Zardari’s slate clean of all corruption charges — as something that prevents the PPP leader from throwing in his lot with Mr. Sharif.

Indeed, since his one outburst against President Musharraf, the PPP chief has toned down the rhetoric, and is stressing “dialogue for democracy.” Conspiracy theorists are even saying that the constitutional package is a “fake confrontation” with President Musharraf, a Zardari ploy to stave off the PML(N) demands for his impeachment. Even if introduced in Parliament tomorrow, the bill would take at least a year of political wrangling to gain parliamentary acceptability.

According to informed opinion, the PPP — through back channel contacts that include the Americans — has been trying to make President Musharraf accept the constitutional package in return for indemnity and safe passage in due course. But Gen. Musharraf is reluctant to play ball with the PPP on its terms. It was against this backdrop that the meeting between him and Gen. Kayani took place. President Musharraf wanted to assess if he could count on the army’s support.

One view is that the replacement of the 111 brigade commander— also known as the Triple One Brigade, it is stationed in Rawalpindi and has played the key role in all of Pakistan’s military coups — was Gen. Kayani’s answer to President Musharraf. The replaced brigadier, Asim Bajwa, was a Musharraf loyalist. But those familiar with the working of the Pakistan military believe that even if Brig. Bajwa had stayed on, it is inconceivable that he would have taken orders from Gen. (retd) Musharraf instead of his corps commander and the army chief.

As he considers his options, President Musharraf has also been looking for assurances from the U.S. that it will continue to back him. In that respect, a phone call from President George Bush reiterating U.S. support to Pakistan, and to Gen. Musharraf’s role in “strengthening U.S.-Pakistan relations” has helped the embattled leader project that he has American backing.

But President Musharraf’s choices may really depend on two upcoming events in the political calendar. The first is the budget session of the National Assembly, which opens on June 7. This should give an indication of where the PPP and the PML(N) stand in terms of their coalition. The second more important date is June 10 when lawyers are set to launch a “long march” starting in Multan in the Punjab province, and ending two days later in the capital, to press the demand for the reinstatement of the deposed judges.

Supreme Court Bar Association president Aitzaz Ahsan is a prominent member of the PPP, but also an increasingly marginalised one on account of his differences with the party leadership over the judges issue. His call on lawyers to lay siege to the Army House in Rawaplindi, where President Musharraf has continued to live even after stepping down as army chief, is an open dare to the PPP-led federal government.

More importantly, Mr. Sharif has indicated that he and his party will join the “long march.” That means the PML(N) government in Punjab will not stop the march, or the proposed siege. Rawalpindi falls in the Punjab province.

The questions being asked is in a situation where the lawyers and PML(N) cadres, led by Nawaz Sharif and Aitzaz Ahsan, are marching on the Army House, will the PPP-led federal government stop them or stand by? And if the PPP-led government cracks down on the marchers, what happens to the coalition? Alternatively, if the PPP stands by and does nothing, how will the army react?

For now, the President has put down the rumours that he is stepping down. But in this fast moving game, all bets are off.

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