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Undercutting the Taliban

There is little chance that the Taliban’s elusive leader Mullah Omar will accept the conditions for talks outlined by Afghanistan’s President Ahmed Karzai in a recent interview. Acceptance of constitutional rule and disowning of responsibility for suicide attacks go against the grain of a movement that believes it has religious sanction for whatever it does. Mr. Karzai seems to be trying to placate his non-Afghan allies, while moving to tackle the situation on the ground. Tribal resistance against the central government still continues in the Pashtun belt. The insurgent groups appear to be following the traditional form of Afghan warfare, with each group remaining active in the district to which its cadre belong and rarely venturing into other areas. It is therefore difficult to assess the extent of coordination among them. The Karzai government asserts that the insurgency leaders might be dispersed in hide-outs across Afghanistan’s eastern and southern borders but they are in close contact with one another. While calling for the destruction of these safe havens, Kabul appears to have recognised that the resistance can be quelled district by district if reconstruction is started soon after the insurgents are cleared out of a locality. The military contingents of the United States and the NATO have found this strategy very effective.

The Pakistan government, perhaps following the lead of the Awami National Party, has expressed its keenness to come to terms with the restless Pashtun tribes rather than deal with them solely through military means. There seems to be a fundamental difference in the way this policy is pursued on either side of the Durand Line. While Kabul is trying to win over tribal elders and thereby the people of a district, Islamabad is apparently going soft on the insurgent leaders. According to media reports, Baitullah Mehsud who operates on either side of the border is moving about freely in southern Waziristan after the removal of military outposts in several towns and cross-roads. This development appears to have alienated the elders of the Mehsud and allied tribes who could have made a vital contribution to the containment of the upsurge in the border belt. The importance of winning over the local people cannot be overstated since the foreign fighters — from the Arab countries and elsewhere — who continue to operate in the border zone pose a greater threat not only to Afghanistan and Pakistan but to the rest of the world as well. They can be crushed only if their links with the local people are snapped.

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