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Hasina’s release, and the prospects

— Photo: AFP

Sheikh Hasina … Despite repeated moves, it has not become possible to factor out the two woman leaders from the political scene.

In April 2007, the Awami League chief and former Prime Minister, Sheikh Hasina, defied a government ban on her coming back to Bangladesh from abroad. It was her firm resolve to return home to face charges of corruption brought against her during the tenure of the present military-backed caretaker government. The daughter of the nation’s slain founding father, who has survived many assassination attempts, was arrested in July, three months after her return, and kept i n a special jail for 11 months.

On June 12, 2008, a day after her release from prison, Ms Hasina flew out of the country in a dramatic turn of events that, many analysts would say, may re-shape Bangladesh politics. The 62-year-old leader was released on parole for eight weeks. A press note explained that the government retained the power to rescind the order any time. However, political analysts predict that she may well be freed permanently.

Events moved fast ahead of Ms Hasina’s release, which was welcomed by another detained former Prime Minister, Khaleda Zia. But Ms Zia’s party and its allies launched a bitter campaign against its arch-rival, the Awami League. Earlier, the courts trying Ms Hasina’s case exempted her from personal appearance. Ms. Hasina’s party, her personal physicians and her lawyers demanded that she be allowed to seek medical treatment abroad, preferably in the United States, where she had undergone surgery. Ms Hasina’s ears were badly affected in 2004 in a grenade attack in Dhaka in which she survived but 22 of her party leaders and workers were killed.

Indeed, the release of Ms Hasina and her departure for medical treatment made for big political drama in the context of the military-backed caretaker government’s pronounced policy to carry forward its high-profile anti-corruption drive without bias. However, according to many observers, political realism worked in the government’s decision-making process and the softening of its attitude towards politicians who matter in national politics. Despite repeated efforts during the last 17 months of their trial, it was clearly not possible to factor out the two women leaders from the political scene. The interim authority wanted substantial reforms on the political front, which perhaps the nation needed desperately. But since the reform package was imposed from the top, and did not come from within the political parties, it just backfired. By any yardstick, the two women leaders are today far stronger than they were at any point earlier.

The government’s Commerce Adviser, Zillur Rahman, who has appeared to be the key negotiator with the political parties, spoke with clarity and confidence that the government had began a confidence-building process with the release of Ms Hasina, aiming at the general election in December. However, he said the government had considered the humanitarian side of the case along with the legal side.

The government’s move was appreciated by all sections in the country, which really want to see an early return of normality in the political arena, and do not want any military or pseudo-democratic rule because they had experienced such authoritarian rule till 1990. Many hold the view that with the release of Ms Hasina, even on parole, the government has gone a step forward towards holding the much-discussed general election as it remains firm in its stance to hold elections in December and hand over power to an elected government.

As seen by many — bar those who believe that another former Prime Minister, Begum Khaleda Zia, and her two allegedly corrupt sons, should also be released immediately — Ms Hasina’s release from confinement is a good sign for a smooth transition of power. Many say that after the alleged blanket arrest of politicians and the wholesale branding of politicians as corrupt, the release of Ms Hasina could be the beginning of a relatively smooth journey towards a better political scene, culminating in the holding of a participatory parliamentary election.

The political scene was actually hotting up after the Awami League had announced agitation programmes demanding the release of Ms. Hasina and declared that without her release the party would neither join the government-sponsored dialogue nor the scheduled December election.

According to analysts, the release of Ms. Hasina was a win-win move. The political heat has now come down considerably. The Awami League has decided to join the government-sponsored dialogue. After her release on June 11, Ms. Hasina presided over a meeting of her party presidium and executive committee. And she directed party workers to “prepare” for the general election.

The government and political sources hinted at more such accommodating and friendly gestures by the caretaker authority to create a congenial political environment towards a peaceful general election. The government had earlier released Awami League general secretary Abdul Jalil on parole for treatment abroad.

Ms. Hasina’s release has faced its share of criticism. The Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and the fundamentalist Jamaat-e-Islami, on the one hand accused the government of being ‘partisan’ in not releasing Khaleda Zia and her sons. On the other hand, they blamed the Awami League for striking an ‘underhand deal’ with the government. But many observers see these accusations as mere political strategy in an adverse situation.

A section of the people has theorised that Ms. Hasina would not return till a congenial atmosphere was restored at home. But those who know her personally say that her return home is guaranteed, even ahead of the eight-week schedule.

Ms. Hasina was released by a special executive order. A Home Ministry press release made it clear that the government may cancel the parole at any point in time without issuing a show-cause notice, and that the government had taken into account the exemption granted by the trial courts waiving the requirement of her personal appearance in the hearings of four ongoing criminal cases.

The BNP now has two distinct factions. One toes the pro-Khaleda line. The other is pro-Khaleda but opposes tooth and nail the main pro-Khaleda faction. The grant of freedom to Ms. Hasina made many BNP leaders happy, for they thought the precedent may be applied to bargain for the release of Begum Zia and her two sons. Many Jamaat activists also thought that Ms Hasina’s release may ultimately lead to the release of their leader Motiur Rahman Nizami.

Some see Ms. Hasina’s release as a big scoring point for the caretaker government, which has failed to handle satisfactorily many vital issues including the rise in the prices of essential commodities, particularly of food items. An indication of the possibility of Begum Zia’s release is the caretaker authority’s statement that it is taking steps to seek a conciliation in the legal proceedings so that she could receive appropriate medical treatment for her ailments “within the country or abroad.”

Begum Zia has been insisting that she does not need treatment abroad, but that “to save the lives of” her two sons in jail, it is imperative that they be sent abroad for better medical treatment. A government spokesman said: “We are giving the highest priority to human considerations and the legal processes attached to these cases [of Tarique Rahman and Arafat Rahman, the two sons].

Overall, the signs are positive, as they reflect the government’s recognition of the fact that negotiations with the top leaders of the major political parties are central to taking the political and electoral processes forward.

Although the BNP has thus far maintained a combative and defiant posture, it is likely to participate in the dialogue and eventually in the electoral process, if its immediate demands are met.

Despite such confidence-building measures, many political forces would not like to trust the caretaker government due to its alleged ‘mysterious behaviour.’ There are indications that the caretaker authority would not like to prolong its tenure. A government spokesman said, on condition of anonymity: “What we want is clear — let not the nation drive back to the January 11, 2007 situation that led to the state of emergency. The caretaker government wants the political parties to make some more promises on how they will run the next government.”

But the political parties take the stand that the Constitution of the country should be the guide in such matters and that they do not need to make any additional promises.

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