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Falling out in Tamil Nadu

Bad as a friend, worse as an enemy. The Pattali Makkal Katchi, forced out of the Democratic Progressive Alliance led by the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam in Tamil Nadu, is known to be a difficult ally in the best of times, ever ready to switch camps according to the way the wind blows. However, the DMK and its principal rival, the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam, have vied with each other to win over the PMK as an alliance partner. This reflects a political perception that the PMK’s vote base, though limited to a section of the Vanniyar caste that is dominant in the northern districts of the State, is more than the margin of victory across several constituencies. Life with the PMK is not easy, but life without it could be worse. Beginning with the 1998 Lok Sabha contest, the PMK has been on the winning side in every Lok Sabha and State Assembly election. Its electoral success has had a lot more to do with its choice of senior partner for a particular election — the DMK or the AIADMK — than with its own strengths but this was sufficient to give the party the tag of an indispensable ally.

In the end, however, DMK president and Chief Minister M. Karunanidhi was left with no choice. Over the last two years, the PMK has publicly opposed many of the policies and programmes of the DMK government. On issues such as airport expansion, the development of a satellite town for Chennai, the acquisition of land for Special Economic Zones, and privatisation of sand quarrying, the State government actually dropped the project or plan after the PMK founder, S. Ramadoss, came out in opposition. However, the DMK leadership became increasingly uncomfortable with this oppositional stance, laced with verbal attacks of a personal nature. As though this was not enough, the PMK leadership put out the message that its Tamil Nadu alliance would not last beyond the Lok Sabha election. For the DMK, the next Assembly election, due in 2011, is more important than the Lok Sabha contest. But what is significant is that while shutting the door on the PMK, the astute Mr. Karunanidhi has left a window open. By announcing that he was not asking for the PMK to be expelled from the United Progressive Alliance, he has ensured some room for Dr. Ramadoss to manoeuvre his way back into the DMK-led front. Whether that will happen in time for the 15th general election essentially depends on the PMK’s sense of the direction of the wind.

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