The Hindu : Kerala / Thiruvananthapuram News : Lowest June rainfall since 1991

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Tuesday, Jul 08, 2008
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Kerala

Kerala - Thiruvananthapuram

Lowest June rainfall since 1991

P. Venugopal

THIRUVANANTHAPURAM: The month of June that has just rolled by is the worst June since 1991 for Kerala, bringing the lowest monsoon rainfall in 18 years, according to records maintained at the Meteorology Centre here.

The worst one before this during the 18-year-period was June 2002, when the State finished the month with a 28-per cent rainfall deficit. The rainfall that June came to 49.1 cm against the long-term average of 67.8 cm, considered ‘normal.’

The June 2008 deficit is 31 per cent, the State receiving just 47 cm rainfall during the month.

A poor June does not necessarily mean the final doom for a Kerala monsoon, judging from the experience of the last 18 years. In 1997, the State rallied from a 19-per cent deficit June to post a 7-per cent excess monsoon by the time the season ended in September.

Meteorologists consider a shortfall of up to 20 per cent and excess of 20 per cent rainfall as ‘normal monsoon,’ though even small variations either way are of vital significance for Kerala in terms of energy security and drinking water security.

During the period studied, it was a fifty-fifty tossup for the monsoon recovering from a poor start or petering out the way it started.

The 2002 monsoon that started with a 28-per cent deficit June petered out with a 35-per cent deficit for the season as a whole. That year witnessed steep power tariff hikes, load-shedding and severe drinking water shortage in the summer months.

Sources of irrigation too dried up by the beginning of the summer that year, hitting hard the cash crops in hill areas and paddy crop in the key district of Palakkad.

Similarly, the 2003 monsoon that began with a 21-per cent deficit June also ended poorly, recording 26 per cent less rainfall than the long-term average for the season. On the other hand, the 1995 monsoon, which had an identically bad June with a 22-per cent rainfall deficit, finished just 6 per cent short of the long-term average.

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