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Syria will gain from Paris summit

Syrian President Bashar al-Assad will be the main guest of the summit of European and Mediterranean leaders from 43 countries in Paris on July 13.

His participation in the summit, where he will sit at the same table with Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, is more interesting for the media than the conference itself. The summit is not expected to make a breakthrough. The Mediterranean Union — or Union for the Mediterranean — proposed by French President Nicolas Sarkozy, may be one more clumsy bureaucratic structure because its functions will overlap with the Euro-Mediterranean (Euro-Med) Partnership, or Barcelona Process, which was launched by Euro-Mediterranean foreign ministers in November 1995 to deepen relations between the European Union and its southern neighbours.

The Barcelona Process embraces 25 European and 10 south Mediterranean countries and is the only integration structure involving both Israel and Arab countries. Its goal is to foster Mediterranean cooperation in fighting terrorism, encouraging regional economic cooperation, addressing illegal migration, protecting the environment, and encouraging a dialogue between different cultures.

The Mediterranean Union will have very similar goals, and expects to get funds from the same source, the E.U. The only difference between them is that the new structure will have two co-chairs, one representing the E.U. and the other the south Mediterranean countries, and its secretariat is to have two co-directors.

Is this enough reason to set up a new organisation? Why are the new structure’s leaders meeting in Paris? Will the Mediterranean Union become a logical improvement on the Barcelona Process, or just another parallel structure? If so, why make the effort, especially since the Euro-Med dialogue is not proceeding as well as its initiators had hoped?

Not only analysts, but the participants in the Paris summit are asking these questions, which is why many heads of state postponed making a decision on their attendance at the summit until the last possible moment.

I am referring to Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Turkey fears that its participation in the new Union might draw out negotiations on its accession to the E.U. because France is the toughest opponent to Turkey’s accession and has proposed other forms of Turkey’s integration with European countries.

Many Arab countries, in particular Algeria, do not like the idea of joint projects with Israel while the West Asia peace process is marking time. Also, the lack of peace in the region is one of the reasons for the slow progress of the Barcelona Process.

Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi has said so out loud. Libya is the only country that has refused the invitation to the Paris summit because Mr. Gaddafi described Mr. Sarkozy’s project as an “international minefield” that may provoke radical groups’ terrorist attacks.

Mr. Gaddafi has made quite a few dramatic statements, which the international community frequently rejects as a show, but he is a seasoned politician. Gaddafi said on July 9 that he welcomed the idea of deeper cooperation between Mediterranean countries as was initially proposed by Mr. Sarkozy’s Mediterranean Union, but the new North-South partnership endorsed by E.U. leaders is “nonsense.”

“I do not advise my country to be part of this salad, this nonsense. This would make us face difficult problems,” said Mr. Gaddafi. “I believe this project of the Union for the Mediterranean would increase illegal migration and terrorism and give a justification to Islamist extremists to step up jihad attacks,” he said.

Mr. Gaddafi said the new project would create problems for either group of countries, apparently referring to the Arab-Israeli conflict, problems between Turks and Kurds, the situation in Iraq and Lebanon, and the attitude of potential members of the new organisation to such movements as Palestine’s Hamas and Lebanon’s Hizbollah.

Fearing that the new Union will only aggravate problems and result in new conflicts, Mr. Gaddafi has decided not to go to Paris, although at first he supported the idea of Mediterranean integration. Initially, the plan was to form a union of Mediterranean states to address practical problems, and Mr. Gaddafi even proposed limiting it to five or six North African countries and the same number of European states. However, Germany pressured Mr. Sarkozy to include all E.U. countries in the new organisation. Nobody knows if Euro-Med will succeed. But simply attending a summit will not bind us to anything, said many leaders. The press will spotlight a meeting between the French and Syrian presidents in Paris, the first in three years, and a meeting between Mr. Assad and Michel Sleiman, the newly elected Lebanese President. It would also be the first time Mr. Assad would sit at the same table with Mr. Olmert. Although they are not expected to hold bilateral talks, simply finding them at the same table could be a sensation.

Syria is demonstrating a new openness and willingness for dialogue. Mr. Assad’s visit to Paris could break Syria’s diplomatic isolation, which began when the international community blamed the death of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafic Hariri in 2005 on Syria. The U.S. and France have been its sharpest critics, although Paris traditionally maintained close ties with Damascus.

Syria was also accused of interfering in the internal affairs of and provoking internal conflicts in Lebanon, notably by supporting Hizbollah, which many Western countries blacklist as a terrorist organisation. It was also criticised for supporting Hamas. However, when Mr. Sleiman was elected President in late May and politicians pledged to settle all disputes without resorting to arms, the West and several Arab countries reviewed their stance on Syria.

Mr. Assad’s visit to Paris would come as additional proof of this and will give his country a chance to improve its relations with France and other European countries, as well as with Arab states, which cannot forgive Damascus for maintaining close ties with Tehran. It may also turn Syria from a political outlaw into a political partner. The country’s future will depend on both Syria and the West, but the Paris summit will change the rules of the game for Syria, if not the balance in the Mediterranean. — RIA Novosti

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