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Gilani’s positive response

Pakistan’s Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani made a decisive break from past practices by promising to conduct an enquiry into New Delhi’s allegation that the Inter-Services Intelligence was involved in the July 7, 2008, suicide bomb attack on the Indian embassy in Kabul. In the past, governments in Islamabad tended to either dismiss such charges out of hand or respond cynically with counter-allegations. Several factors, besides Mr. Gilani’s commitment to promoting the process of détente in South Asia, underlie the change in response this time. Democratic forces in Pakistan have learnt through bitter experience that for their survival and continued relevance on the political scene, they must establish control over the military and its intelligence arm. An ineffective, perhaps inept, effort to achieve this purpose was made a few days ago. The Gilani government could have also been encouraged by recent indications that the Central Intelligence Agency of the United States has begun to distance itself from the ISI. According to several reports in the U.S. media, the CIA presented to Pakistani authorities intelligence material that showed the nexus between the ISI and terrorist groups in Afghanistan; transcripts of intercepted communication between ISI operatives and the cell that carried out the attack on the Indian embassy were reportedly part of this material.

While there seems to be little reason to doubt the sincerity of the elected government in Islamabad, few will be ready to wager that it will come out on top in a confrontation with the ISI. The intelligence outfit has immense capacity to apply counter-pressure. The U.S. administration is better placed than any other government to back up Mr. Gilani should he make a move to establish control over the military. However, even Washington’s influence over Pakistan’s internal political affairs must not be overestimated. The Gilani government’s grip is still so tenuous that there is no guarantee that its promises to curb violations of the ceasefire along the Line of Control and stop infiltration by terrorist groups will and can be fulfilled. Despite the uncertainty, New Delhi must continue to push the process of détente in the hope that revanchist elements will be sidelined as an enduringly constructive relationship develops between the peoples of India and Pakistan. A quick and positive response to the Gilani regime’s offer to provide trade and investment opportunities for Indian business houses appears to be in order. At the same time, New Delhi must consistently and firmly hold the bottom-line: peace-making cannot proceed in an atmosphere vitiated by acts of terrorism.

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