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The numbers game

On February 18, a small movement in the men’s rankings will usher in a tectonic shift in the world of tennis. Roger Federer, who has dominated the sport since mid-2003, will concede the world number one slot to Rafael Nadal. It is a place Federer has owned, without challenge for the most part, for a record 235 successive weeks. The measure of this achievement becomes obvious when one considers that only three men have held the number one rank for over 100 straight weeks — Jimmy Connors (160), Ivan Lendl (157), and Pete Sampras (102). If it was not easy to fathom how this man conquered the tennis world with such flamboyant ease, it is even more difficult to figure out what has accounted for his sudden dip in form. Opinions have ranged from mononucleosis (a viral infection he caught at the end of last year) to such things as lack of motivation, loss of confidence, and slower reflexes. Whatever be the truth, the Swiss champion finished 2007 on a near-perfect note, winning the Masters Series in Hamburg after pocketing three Grand Slams and reaching the final of the French Open.

This year has been Federer’s annus horribilis. He has won only two relatively minor tournaments, on grass in Germany and clay in Portugal; his dip in form was underlined on Friday by his loss to American James Blake in the Beijing Olympics. In comparison, he won eight tournaments in 2007, 12 in 2006, and 11 each in the two preceding years. His win-loss record in 2008 is, by his lofty standards, a hard-to-believe 45-11. It makes for a poor comparison with 70-5 in 2004, 80-4 in 2005, 90-5 in 2006, and 67-9 in 2007. So is the Federer era well and truly over? Is the pugnacious and hard-hitting Nadal, now armed with a new backhand slice and growing confidence on grass, simply a better and more determined all-round player today? Is Federer’s decline part of the natural process that comes with the entry of younger men such as Novak Djokovic, players who are fitter, faster? It is premature to write off someone with the genius of Federer because of one bad streak. What is clear is that it will be extremely difficult for the great man to re-establish the Bradman-like, Spitz-like, Phelps-like dominance he exercised over the tennis world. Over the next few years, we may need to moderate our sky-high expectations of Federer. At the same time, tennis must celebrate the change of guard at the top. Rafael Nadal’s ascension has been achieved incrementally, by an improvement in virtually every aspect of his game. This child of clay, who worked hard to adapt his game to hard courts, has successfully made the transition to low-bouncing grass through extraordinary focus, determination, and courage. There can be no worthier successor to the crown that Federer has worn for a little over four years.

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