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After Musharraf, the deluge?

With President Pervez Musharraf’s exit appearing imminent, what will a post-Musharraf Pakistan look like?

Fears have been expressed in the American press and in India, most notably by National Security Adviser M.K. Narayanan, that his going will create more uncertainty and a power vacuum that will prove favourable to militant jihadist groups operating bot h on the country’s north-western frontier and on the Line of Control in the east.

Concerns exist in Pakistan too. The Daily Times said in an editorial last week that the post-Musharraf era may prove “more threatening” particularly if the elected politicians start retreating from concerted action against militancy under the popular pressure of anti-Americanism and threats from the Al Qaeda and Taliban. The newspaper also flagged the threat to the economy that may follow. Based on the track record of previous democratic experiments, and on the basis of this government’s performance of the last five months, there are also worries that the elected leadership may prove unequal to the task.

But in Pakistan, there is broad agreement that the challenges facing the country can be sorted out only if and after the retired General Musharraf goes. Mr. Narayanan’s remarks have already come in for much criticism with one television show host commenting that they reflected India’s “continuing love affair with Musharraf.” Some commentators have even suggested sarcastically that Mr. Narayanan should offer President Musharraf asylum in Delhi, the home town that he left as a four-year-old at Partition.

Since the February 18 election, and for more than a year before that, Gen. Musharraf has been perceived by his countrymen as the main source of instability in the country due to his determination to cling to office. Starting with the killing of Nawab Akbar Khan Bugti in August 2006, he has been seen as responsible for the multiple crises facing Pakistan because of his all-out efforts to cement his grip on power. But with all such leaders, it only led to an erosion of his authority. Even the international community’s concerns over his exit may be based more on the nostalgia of his early years than his performance in the recent past.

“Their worries are understandable. You do tend to become used to a leader if he has been around for nine years. But for the last 18 months, he has totally become ineffective as far as governance is concerned. The country has been free-wheeling,” said Talat Masood, a retired Lieutenant General who is now a respected political and military analyst.

Gen. Musharraf’s refusal to concede that the defeat of the Pakistan Muslim League (Q) was a vote against him is also seen as contributing to the instability. Instead of quitting gracefully, he has been seen as plotting against the government to ensure the early collapse of the coalition and its replacement by a new set-up that would include the PML(Q).

“When Musharraf goes, it will not be the beginning of uncertainty, but an end to it,” said Rasul Baksh Rais, who teaches political science at the Lahore University of Management Sciences. “Pakistan will be a much more settled place after his departure”.

According to Dr. Rais, the uncertainty in Pakistan is that the mandate given by the people to their new leaders was very different from the power and influence that Gen. Musharraf continued to wield as president.

“We don’t know who the power is and who has the responsibility. Once Musharraf is gone, it will be the coalition government and parliament, and there will be no doubt about that, and they will have to start delivering,” he said.

The coalition has so far blamed its rudderless drift on Gen. Musharraf, on the inability of the coalition to agree on what to do with him, and their differences over the restoration of the judges he dismissed in 2007. But when he goes, and the judges reinstated as promised, analysts say, the coalition has to start functioning as a credible government without any delay. No one expects his departure will lead to a radical alteration of the country’s problematic civil-military relations. But within Pakistan, people will be looking for economic recovery, an end to the food shortages, and for assurances on security. The international community, and India in particular, will look for guarantees that the government will be able to end terrorism not just on Pakistani soil, but also attacks in other parts of the world planned or launched from here.

“After Gen. Musharraf goes, the entire focus and responsibility will be on the democratic leadership. Unfortunately in Pakistan, the track record of our democracies has not been good, and there is a very strong feeling going by all that has happened in the last few months, that the present leadership is also not equipped for the job,” said Lt. Gen Masood. “The new leaders have to dispel this impression, and send out the message both in Pakistan and to the outside world that they are serious about governance, about the war on terror, about rescuing the economy from its downward slide. They cannot anymore give empty slogans. They have to produce results in order to restore the confidence of the people and send out the message that democracy can deliver”.

In order to do this, observers say, it is crucial that the coalition agrees not to try President Musharraf should he decide to quit. Mr. Sharif has said a trial will set an example for other dictators, but there are concerns that such a process could take the focus off governance and create more divisions in the country.

“Frankly, it won’t be just Musharraf on trial but the entire system. And we cannot afford that. His going will remove a thorn from the side and will help us focus on other more pressing issues. That is why we need to give him a safe exit. Once he goes, his impeachment, or his trial becomes irrelevant. We need to move forward as quickly as possible,” said Shafqat Mahmood, a political commentator and a former a member the Senate, the Pakistan parliament’s upper house.

Also, the government’s ability to get on with governance will depend on the survival of the coalition. And the question uppermost in everyone’s minds, in Pakistan and outside, is how long the ruling coalition can last after Gen. Musharraf’s departure from the scene.

Nawaz Sharif came together with Asif Ali Zardari to form the coalition because he saw this as his best bet to fix the man who ousted him from power in 1999. The Pakistan Muslim League (N) leader’s plan was to have the judges restored, and let them deal with President Musharraf through the courts. When the Pakistan People’s Party leader, who earlier said he did not want a confrontation with President Musharraf and would prefer to see him go on his own, and at one stage was even prepared to work with him, had a change of mind and decided to go for impeachment, Mr. Sharif was only too happy to join in.

But after President Musharraf’s departure, there is little political reason for Mr. Sharif to hang together with Mr. Zardari, and there are concerns that another power struggle could soon follow, this time between these two leaders, with debilitating side-effects for Pakistan.

“Coalitions everywhere are the same. They continue as long as there is broad agreement on policies, and they break up when there is disagreement. This happens in all democracies. But it is extremely important to send out a psychological message of stability after Musharraf goes, especially for the economy. One necessary condition for that is unity. [The ruling coalition] must present a united front. If the coalition is seen as fractious, that will send out the message of instability,” said Mr. Mahmood.

The survival of the coalition is seen as important for another reason. This is the first time in Pakistan’s history that the two main parties are on the same side. It is as close as it can get to a national government, and it is seen as an unprecedented opportunity to rebuild the country and its institutions.

“The challenges facing Pakistan today are such that it will be difficult for one party to handle them on its own while the other party sits in opposition. Until such time as a national consensus develops on the main issues — the war against terror, the economy, and on foreign policy issues such as the U.S., Afghanistan, Kashmir, the peace process with India — the coalition must stand together. Otherwise it could lead to a chaotic situation,” said Lt. Gen. Masood.

For now, Pakistan is just waiting for President Musharraf to go. His long goodbye is costing the country dearly. The current instability has sent the rupee crashing against the dollar, and businessmen, who once used to think of him as a godsend, are writing to him asking him to go early. Had he decided to leave when his term ended in October 2007, or even in February 2008, after the election results, he would have been remembered differently by history.

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