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Averting a catastrophe

The caution issued by the chief scientific adviser to the United Kingdom’s Department for the Environment, Food and Rural Affairs on a dangerous four-degree Celsius rise in global average temperature above pre-industrial levels should serve as a fresh alert to governments. The scientific consensus on global average temperature increase during the 21st century, issued by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in 2007, ranges from 1.4 degrees to 4 degrees C. Climatologists are worried about the negative effects of an increase beyond two degrees for millions of people. On a geological time-scale relevant to humans, it is estimated that only a few inter-glacial periods were warmer than the present, that too only by one degree Celsius. The consequences of a four-degree rise in temperature for coastlines, life-sustaining monsoons, and agricultural productivity in an era of food stress and ecological degradation will be nothing short of disastrous. These are alarm calls that official and political India has not taken seriously enough. Although a high-level committee has been constituted, and a National Action Plan on Climate Change announced, the effort to decarbonise energy sources is faltering for an akratic want of political will.

The central government has to move forward urgently on climate change issues without waiting for refinements to scientific modelling. Current models, such as those of the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, predict a significant rise in surface air temperature over the subcontinent in the coming decades. If this happens, much of the country will have to contend with heavy rainfall and severe drought, both occurring with greater frequency. No time can be lost in setting up the missions, under the national action plan, on sustainable agriculture, water, and habitat; they must deliver solutions before crippling effects on climate are fully manifest. The glaciers in the Himalayas, which feed economically important rivers, have lost about 20 per cent of their surface in the past four decades. They may retreat sharply because of a further temperature rise. These are deeply worrying signs. It will take more than green-washed policies to reduce the level of threat to the economy and human welfare. Firm targets are necessary for individual sectors — starting with power generation — to lower greenhouse gas emissions. Only a major initiative to popularise solar technologies can help manage energy demand and link remote areas. But even with good intent, there may not be sufficient time to mitigate and adapt to climate change if the critical issue is drowned in the din of year-round political upheavals and tamashas.

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