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Hurricanes: natural, political (& electoral?)

Clouds from hurricane Gustav approaching New Orleans. Gustav brings back memories of Katrina — of the gigantic failures of the George Bush government. — Photo: AP

Hours before Hurricane Gustav — category 3 and gaining force at the time of writing — hit the United States’ Gulf Coast, it was already being worked into the politics of the race for presidency and election year. “The political fallout will be enormous,” declared one television anchor. Then, embarrassed by what he had said — as if letting go a secret by accident — he went on to stress the hurricane was a human crisis. One about which we should not be crass, etc. Political evacuations were on at the Republican Convention in St. Paul, Minnesota, even as physical ones were under way in New Orleans, Louisiana. Gustav could be more dangerous than Katrina that struck the latter almost exactly three years ago.

At this point, it’s all quite messy for the Republicans. They’ve had to “abbreviate” their convention events in a major way. They’ve had to do that without knowing what the actual impact of the hurricane could be. It could slow down, it could gain intensity. Dogged by uncertainty, the Republicans have announced they are taking the “politics” out of many sessions to show their concern in the face of a huge, gathering crisis. But how do you take politics out of an event that is quintessentially political? That proclaims and celebrates the soul of a party. That too, when you’ve been readying the platform for major — political — attacks on your rivals. They’d certainly, though, like to defuse the weapons it places in rival hands.

Gustav brings back memories of Katrina — of the gigantic failures of the Republican government of George Bush. Sure, there is actually very little one can do against hurricanes of category three upwards. They’re giant natural calamities. But what will be remembered is the complete lethargy of Mr. Bush and his government after Katrina struck. That won’t help the Republicans. Debates will re-surface over the neglect of the levees before that disaster. Memories renewed of the real estate racketeering that followed. As also of the later dispossession of poor people of their properties — using Katrina’s destruction as an opportunity.

Most services and arms of government worked poorly after Katrina. Years of amputating those arms, spending cuts, weakening public services had rendered them sparse and feeble. This time, there have been pre-disaster evacuations on a large scale. But the process of gutting public services has only intensified since Katrina. And several levees — kinds of dams that run along river banks and canals, which reinforce the banks and help prevent flooding — are in sorry shape. Three years after Katrina, several of Louisiana’s defective levees are yet to be repaired or raised. Only the ones directly hit by Katrina saw repairs. Quite a few of the others never got the funding they needed. If struck by the hurricane, these could now prove lethal.

Louisiana state — with its Republican Governor (of Indian origin) — is again bracing for a hit. President Bush has cancelled his appearance at the Republican Convention in St. Paul. The party HQ at the Convention is stressing its concern for the people who will be affected by the hurricane. It says the trimming of the events is out of respect for those who will be affected by the hurricane. “We will act not as Republicans but as Americans.” That’s the line coming out of the Convention centre. And that somehow seems to demand a suspension of politics. In words, at least. In deed, though, it sharpens it.

The media too struggle with that problem. The political fallout will surely be quite something. But discussing that openly at full tilt can be seen as a bit ghoulish. So the anchors get down to doing this after mandatory declarations that it’s really a human crisis. “This is a good time for a timeout on politics,” preached one anchor — then proceeding to the political fallout without batting an eyelid. (And adding the line: “We’ve got a lot of reporters watching that hurricane.”)

There is unquestionably far more action on the ground now than there was in 2003. To that extent, vital lessons from Katrina might well have been learnt. The evacuations could be the biggest the State of Louisiana has ever seen. Thousands have left New Orleans in special trains and buses. Hundreds of patients in hospitals — all but the most critically ill who cannot be moved — have been re-located. Many shelters are gearing up for the affected they know will come pouring in. Lots of individuals are on the ready as volunteers. And that’s before the hurricane struck land anywhere.

Federal and State governments are pulling out all stops in an admirable effort to prevent a recurrence of 2003. Cynics see the flurry of concern and activity as having as much to do with election year and the presidential race as with Gustav. “And sometimes the cynics are right,” says columnist and journalist Conn Hallinan. “The last thing they need is another Katrina which shows them up for what they are. You’d never have seen this kind of response in 2003.” He does make a distinction between individuals acting from idealism and high motivation — and official efforts. The latter, he sees as very political. This is election year — and not just for the presidential hopefuls.

When Katrina hit in 2003, President Bush was on vacation. It was two days before he returned to Washington and almost four before he visited the affected region. This time, he was on alert before the hurricane hit the coast. And scrapping his personal appearance at St. Paul is also aimed at projecting a better image than the one his failures with Katrina earned him.

The link to the political also came out sharply right after the press conference of Governor Bobby Jindal of Louisiana on preparations for meeting the challenge of Gustav. Mr. Jindal was at once hailed by media pundits as very impressive at that conference. Television channels — before the storm hit — have already had discussions on whether the Republicans lost a great candidate for Vice President when they put up Sarah Palin. “They might be looking at Jindal and regretting the lost opportunity,” said one analyst.

There are some who believe Gustav isn’t so bad for the Republicans and their convention. After all, they argue: It’s a big relief for the Republicans that George Bush and Dick Cheney aren’t going to be at the Convention. The last thing they need is to link the McCain campaign with those two discredited people. In fact, that’s the most potent weapon of the Democrats, who warn the public that electing John McCain is seeking another four years of George Bush.

Those who believe that Gustav brings some relief to the Republicans also point out there’s no way Mr. McCain could have pulled off what Barack Obama did at the Democratic Convention. Which was to fill a football stadium with over 80,000 cheering fans. That was as hard an act to follow as Stevie Wonder (who performed at the stadium). In short, there was no way the Republicans could have matched that spectacle. Now they can make a virtue of a relatively low-key show. It doesn’t look good to be scattering too many balloons and too much confetti at so grim a moment.

Both make good arguments. But on the whole, the Republicans are worried about old and surfacing memories. The ghosts of Katrina are afoot. And how things go with Gustav will be scrutinised more sharply than they were with Katrina. This, after all, is election year. And so even as protestations of avoiding ‘politics’ fill the air, the more political it will get. Gustav, of course, is non-political. What follows Gustav will be anything but that.

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