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Promising tenor

With both the government of Israel and the Palestinian Authority grappling with political uncertainty, the prospects of the two sides making headway towards a final peace settlement appear remote. There have been no serious negotiations over the past several months even as creativity in respect of finding solutions to the contentious issues remains in short supply. But with signs of political change in Israel, pessimism seems to have dissipated somewhat. Israeli leaders have made statements indicating more realism as regards Israel’s own stance. Ehud Olmert who resigned as Prime Minister in September and began his political career as an extreme right-winger went further than any of his predecessors, calling for a complete withdrawal from occupied territories. He warned that the international mood was such that if Israel did not act quickly to achieve peace with the Palestinians, it could turn into a multi-confessional state with a Jewish minority. While his designated successor Tzipi Livni has not made clear as to how far she is willing to go in order to achieve a just settlement, she has emphasised the need to press ahead urgently with negotiations and keep talking until all issues are resolved. She has also endorsed the Palestinian position that “no issue will be considered as settled unless all are settled.” These statements are promising of a more principled approach to the imperative of a settlement.

Ms Livni appears to have gained strength politically over the last week or so. After she was elected leader of the Kadima, the main party in the ruling coalition, it was thought she would be unable to retain the support of the Labour party. If Ms Livni fails to muster the numbers in parliament by the first week of November, Israel will inevitably head towards general elections in early 2009. But the prospects for the forging of a coalition have brightened with the negotiations between the Labour party and Ms Livni’s Kadima now picking up momentum. The Labour Party chairman, Ehud Barak’s initial reluctance to work with Ms Livni appears to have been overwhelmed by the ground realities of Israeli politics. It is believed that Kadima has drawn away a large chunk of the centrist Ashkenazi Israelis who traditionally formed the base of the Labour party. Meanwhile, the Palestinians seem to be having similar trouble. Egypt is currently mediating talks between Fatah and Hamas, and there is now a prospect of the formation of a unity government. Such a development would trigger another set of complications since Israel might not be agreeable to negotiate with a Palestinian Authority that contains Islamist elements.

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