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Does Zardari’s word have Army backing?

ISLAMABAD: President Asif Ali Zardari’s promise that his country would not be the first to use nuclear weapons in a conflict with India threatens to take the Pakistan People’s Party-led government once again into the difficult territory of the country’s military-civilian relations.

Pakistan’s nuclear weapons are controlled by its all powerful military, and it is unclear if Mr. Zardari’s promise, made in response to a question at a videoconference session of the Hindustan Times Leadership Summit, has the backing of the Army.

It is also unclear how the military establishment will react to this new development. The government and the establishment collided earlier this year over attempts by the new civilian set-up to take charge of the Inter-Services Intelligence, Pakistan’s military-led spy agency.

The Foreign Office was silent on Mr. Zardari’s statement. Islamabad has thus far never indicated a willingness to adopt the principle of no-first use of its nuclear arsenal, even though India announced a no-first use policy some years ago.

To the contrary, Pakistan’s historical position is that entering into a no-first use agreement with New Delhi would negate the rationale of its nuclear programme that it needs nuclear weapons as it does not have sufficient conventional parity with India.

Surprisingly, the Pakistan Muslim League (N), in whose term in power the country tested its nuclear weapons, said it did not see anything dramatically new in Mr. Zardari’s statement.

“Pakistan has always said our nuclear weapons are only for deterrence, they are not for offensive purposes. We have always said we will never use nuclear weapons to start a war,” spokesman Ahsan Iqbal told The Hindu.

When it was pointed out that the no-first use principle was not the same as deterrence, Mr. Iqbal said the Sharif-Vajpayee Lahore Declaration was “far more comprehensive” as it promised to ensure that there would be no nuclear conflict in South Asia.

The PML(N) spokesman also said Mr. Zardari’s expressed intention to work towards a nuclear-free South Asia was articulated earlier by his leader Nawaz Sharif when he was Prime Minister.

“This was Nawaz Sharif’s proposal as Prime Minister. On the Pakistan side, the position has always been consistent. But because India refuses to abandon its nuclear weapons, this proposal has been in the doldrums.”

Those who have actively espoused peace between the two neighbours welcomed Mr. Zardari’s statements even while expressing doubts if the President fully understood the import of his words.

“Even if [Mr. Zardari] was not fully familiar with the nuclear vocabulary, what he possibly meant was that there has to be a strategic restraint regime between the two countries,” said Lt. Gen (retd) Talat Masood, who heads the Pakistan chapter of the international conflict resolution group, Pugwash.

“It shows he is persistent in his efforts to make peace with India, and it is in line with his overall vision for relations with India,” Lt. Gen. Masood said. Mr. Zardari’s statement that he wanted a nuclear-free South Asia was also “very positive” and in line with the new thinking in the world on disarmament, Lt. Gen. Masood said.

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