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Mixed results from five States

If there is one inference to be drawn from the mixed outcomes of Assembly elections in five States, it is that the people have voted largely on the basis of longstanding livelihood concerns and local issues — and not in a panic mode following the Mumbai terror attack. This is not to deny that terrorism is an issue of electoral significance. But this does not mean the Bharatiya Janata Party, which habitually accuses its opponents of being soft on terrorism, will gain at the expense of the secular parties after every major terrorist act of the Islamist variety. In Rajasthan, which went to the polls after the terror attack, the Congress has upset conventional wisdom and is only marginally short of a majority. In Delhi, where the BJP again sought to exploit the terror in Mumbai for electoral gain, the Congress has fared impressively, with Sheila Dixit set to become Chief Minister for a third successive term. However, the BJP can take heart from the poll outcomes in Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh. Despite the Bharatiya Jan Shakti led by Uma Bharti taking a small slice of its voter base, the saffron party has emerged a comfortable winner in Madhya Pradesh. In Chhattisgarh, in a tight race that was over before the terror in Mumbai began, the BJP has its nose in front of its opponent. As for Mizoram, the Congress is a runaway winner, displacing the Mizo National Front.

For those looking for trends that might determine the outcome of the 15th general election due in April-May 2009, the results of the Assembly contests will be disappointing. With honours even between the two main political parties in the system, and a variety of local factors dominating the run-up to the elections, no real conclusions can be drawn from the mixed results. The fight was close in Rajasthan, where the votes were fragmented, and also in Chhattisgarh and Delhi. Only Madhya Pradesh and Mizoram, a small State that holds no portent for a national election, threw up decisive winners. What the elections underlined was that while ‘anti-incumbency’ is a factor, it need not be a decisive factor: the Congress demonstrated this in Delhi and the BJP in Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh. Interestingly, the Bahujan Samaj Party led by Mayawati emerged as a party on the rise in parts of the Hindi heartland beyond Uttar Pradesh. The BSP might not have won too many seats in Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh but Ms Mayawati succeeded in projecting herself as a serious and independent player at the national level. The real message voters have sent out is, in balance, a reassuring one: elections are not single-issue affairs, no matter the propaganda of those who claim to be riding this or that emotional wave.

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