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"Polls alone won't strengthen Bangladesh's democracy"

DHAKA: With Bangladesh's situation remaining "complex and fragile," the International Crisis Group (ICG) sees no guarantees that Bangladesh will achieve a smooth transition to democracy through polls.

According to an ICG country briefing released on Friday, the end to Emergency rule and holding elections do not equal democracy, but both are necessary preconditions for the country's stability.

Referring to delaying of the election, ICG's Asia analyst, Michael Shaikh, said: "Talk of delaying elections has understandable attractions for leaders afraid of underperforming at the polls... But there is no viable alternative to timely elections."

He pointed out that "regardless of who wins the election, the next government and the opposition parties will face the challenges of making Parliament work and contending with an Army that wants a greater say in politics."

He said the Awami League and Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) are approaching the election from opposite positions. According to the ICG: "Awami League, viewed as the frontrunner, is eager to contest the polls promptly and with few preconditions. The BNP is in disarray. The party threatened to boycott if Emergency laws barring many of its members from standing in the election were not rescinded. BNP boycott threats have already forced one poll delay."

A number of factors could adversely affect the elections and their aftermath, says the Crisis Group. "Allegations of rigging could spark a party boycott or political violence. Technical flaws on election day with ballots or the voter roll could cause a delay or require re-polling in some areas."

As for the next steps, the ICG says the caretaker government should lift the Emergency on 17 December, as pledged, and not restrict rights and freedoms necessary for a credible election. The Electoral Commission must immediately start an information campaign on voting procedures, and publish the results promptly and accurately. They should also avoid interfering with the election by putting security personnel in the polling stations."The parties must not take the international community's support for elections as an endorsement of their behaviour but rather see it as belated recognition of the dangers of military rule."

Sounding a cautionary note, the ICG said the December 29 election will not return the country to civilian rule unless those with a stake in the polls, including the international community, ensure all registered parties contest credible, peaceful polls.

"For the parties, the challenge will not end on polling day," said Rhoderick Chalmers, ICG's's South Asia deputy project director. "Managing a smooth transition to democratic functioning will require resisting the winner-takes-all approach and cooperating to tackle the serious difficulties the country faces."

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"Polls alone won't strengthen Bangladesh's democracy"

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