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2009: waiting for the big battle

The last round of Assembly elections before a Lok Sabha election have traditionally been an event to watch out for. It is that time when a favourite emerges. It is that time when players and pundits furiously visualise the future Lok Sabha.

Yet at the turn of the new year, there is no outright winner to fete. The Congress and the Bharatiya Janata Party tied the November elections 2-2 (not counting Mizoram with a single Lok Sabha seat), while December brought news of a hung Jammu and Kashmir House.

The BJP had hoped to mount its final assault on the back of a clean sweep in the elections to the Assemblies of Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan and Delhi. Also on its radar was Jammu, which promised a bounty. In the event, the BJP got only the first two. Jammu delivered 11 of 37 Assembly seats to the party but this does not count for much from a 2009 perspective. (Jammu has only two Lok Sabha seats).

In reality, Assembly elections are a limited yardstick for judging the Lok Sabha outcome; at best they broadly indicate a party’s support in the areas where elections were held. The May 2004 Lok Sabha election proves this. The BJP pulled off a 3-1 win in the November 2003 Assembly polls only to lose the finals. However, its 2004 Lok Sabha performance in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh corresponded to its 2003 victory in these States. Similarly, the Congress did poorly in the three States it lost, but bagged all but one Lok Sabha seats in Delhi which it won in 2003.

So the most that can be assumed for 2009 is that the BJP will do reasonably well in Madhya Pradesh and Chhatisgarh and the Congress in Delhi and Rajasthan. The Bahujan Samaj Party, which increased its vote share in all four States, ought to pick up a few Lok Sabha seats from them. However, in J&K, where the National Conference and the Congress have forged a post-poll alliance, the Assembly pattern looks set to break in favour of the Congress-NC.

It is then largely back to the drawing board for both the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance and the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance. The road ahead is not easy for either. The complicating factor here is the third angle to the triangle. The Third Front/Force, though hobbled by problems, has gradually become the front to watch out for. Consider this. The two acknowledged heavyweights in the coming general election, J. Jayalalithaa and Mayawati, are both out of the mainstream, and within the loose boundaries of this group. The caveats here are: Can this space hold two very strong personalities? Secondly, as maters stand, there is no conceivable way in which the Third Front/Force can by itself muster a majority.

This leaves us with three incomplete formations on the eve of Battle 2009. The story of 2004 was the Congress alliance’s superlative performance in seven States — Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, Haryana, Delhi and Himachal Pradesh. The alliance won 129 of 156 seats on offer in these States, achieving a phenomenal strike rate of 83 percent. The Congress alliance also got 23 of 48 seats in Maharashtra, 12 of 26 seats in Gujarat, 3 of 6 seats in J&K and 9 of 14 seats in Assam. As against this, the alliance suffered a rout in Kerala and most of the North-East, barring Assam. The Congress side also fared poorly in Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal, Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Orissa and Punjab, getting only 36 of the total 249 seats.

The possibility that the Congress alliance can do an encore in the first seven States seems remote. In 2004, the Congress made a dream alliance; its partners complemented each other brilliantly. The party also had the unstated support of the Left. Several new factors have altered the poll landscape since then, starting with the Congress-Left break-up.

In Tamil Nadu, Ms Jayalalitha has joined forces with the Left and is assiduously wooing estranged former allies. In Andhra Pradesh, the Congress is up against Chiranjeevi in addition to the alliance formed by the Left Front, the Telugu Desam Party and the Telangana Rashtra Samiti. In Bihar, Nitish Kumar is the bright new star to the squabbling Lalu Prasad and Ram Vilas Paswan. In Haryana, the party faces a united BJP-Indian National Lok Dal combine. In Jharkhand, the Congress has been involved in messy toppling games, while in Himachal Pradesh, the party is a divided house.

Can the Congress alliance make up the losses with wins elsewhere? The four States that went to the polls recently had figured prominently in the Congress’ original calculations for the Lok Sabha. Of the four, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh have gone with the BJP. Earlier the BJP had scored convincing victories in Punjab, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, Gujarat, and Karnataka. Either the trend holds in these States or we see the beginnings of early anti-incumbency in some of them. Neither situation offers much hope for the Congress. In Maharashtra, the Congress and the Nationalist Congress Party are at the end of a long incumbency.

The Congress alliance’s best bets are Kerala, Rajasthan, Delhi, J&K and the North-East (barring Assam where the BJP and the Asom Gana Parishad have reunited). Orissa could also go the Congress way. Yet, together these States account for only 90 seats. Indeed, by this reckoning, the UPA as a whole will be hard put to touch the 160 mark.

Is there a game changer here that one has missed? A Congress-Samajwadi Party alliance that works on the ground in Uttar Pradesh could add considerably to UPA’s tally. A Congress-SP combined count of 50 seats could at once stymie Ms Mayawati and the NDA. A Congress-Trinamool Congress alliance in West Bengal would be a further boost. A timely patch-up between Mr. Prasad and Mr. Paswan could stem the losses in Bihar. Yet all of this will not take the UPA beyond 230-240 seats. In 2004, it was the Left Front that bridged the gap between the UPA and the majority mark.

It is not as if the BJP is gaining from the situation. The NDA of 1999 was a 22-party alliance. Today the BJP has six allies, including the AGP and the INLD. Parties that have left the saffron fold include the TDP, the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam and its allies, the Lok Janshakti Party, the National Conference and the Rashtriya Lok Dal. The Trinamool Congress is no longer an active partner.

The main contributors to the BJP alliance’s 1999 Lok Sabha victory were Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Delhi, Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh. The NDA won 177 of 268 seats in these States. Today the BJP is assured of only Gujarat and M.P. It has no allies in Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh while in U.P. it should be lucky to retain its 2004 count of 10 seats. Delhi has rooted for the Congress.

The NDA is a truncated, troubled grouping. In Orissa, Naveen Patnaik fights an eight-year incumbency. In Bihar, the BJP has conceded seniority to Nitish Kumar who just about tolerates the Hindutva party. In Maharashtra, the Shiv Sena is not the force it was.

Even in the best case scenario, the BJP’s individual score looks unlikely to cross 150. Add another 45 seats from the allies, and the NDA is still woefully short of the halfway mark. The BJP can explore ties with Chiranjeevi in Andhra Pradesh, Vijayakanth in Tamil Nadu and Ajit Singh in U.P. Unfortunately for the party, it is no longer the attractive ally it was when it started coalition building. In much of the South, it has little to offer potential partners who are loath to cede valuable seats to it. Elsewhere parties have begun to weigh the advantage of partnering the BJP with the disadvantage of losing the Muslim vote, a recent case in point being the National Conference.

The Third Force/ Alternative’s hopes rest on the combined seat share of the BJP and the Congress falling below the majority count of 272. This has happened only once in the history of the Lok Sabha — in 1977, when the Janata Party ousted the Congress. However, for the Third Force to be able to form a government, it is not merely enough that the non-Congress, non-BJP parties get to occupy a space larger than the Congress plus BJP. This is because the Congress and the BJP are both backed by allies many of whom will not join the Third Force. Among them: The Trinamool Congress, the Shiv Sena, the Akali Dal, the DMK and the SP ( the first three for ideological reasons and the last two because the AIADMK and the BSP are engaged with the Left). Parties such as the JD(U) and the BJD have no ideological problems with the Left. But they will not join the third alliance because it offers them no advantage in their home States.

Does this mean we are headed for a Trishanku Lok Sabha? This is a constitutional impossibility. So either splinter groups from the UPA and the Third Front cross over to the NDA. Or the Congress and the Left get back together.

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