Karnataka   

A pre-poll understanding could only have brought down BJP’s victory margin

BANGALORE: Even if the Janata Dal (Secular) and the Congress had forged a pre-poll understanding for the byelections to the eight Assembly constituencies in the State, the Bharatiya Janata Party’s juggernaut would have barely been halted.

An analysis of the number of votes polled by the candidates of the three mainstream parties — the BJP, Janata Dal (Secular) and the Congress — shows that the total number of votes polled by the candidates of the Janata Dal (Secular) and the Congress in each of the eight constituencies would not have surpassed the votes polled by the BJP candidates in four constituencies.

Theoretically, the BJP would have won four constituencies while the remaining four would have been shared by the Janata Dal (Secular) and the Congress if an understanding had been arrived at before the bypolls. A pre-poll understanding could have at best denied the BJP a victory in Doddaballapur Assembly constituency while the outcome would have been more or less the same in the rest of the segments. In Doddaballapur Assembly constituency, where BJP candidate J. Narasimhaswamy, who polled 59,940 votes, was declared elected, Congress candidate R.G. Venkatachaliah and Janata Dal (Secular) candidate B. Mune Gowda secured 46,849 and 24,184 votes.

In the event of pre-poll tie-up, the joint candidate of Congress and the Janata Dal (Secular) would have theoretically secured 70,033 votes against the BJP’s 59,940. Though the outcome in the rest of the seven constituencies would have been the same, the margin of victory recorded by the BJP candidates would have come down in the event of a pre-poll understanding. Irrespective of a pre-poll alliance between the Congress and the Janata Dal (Secular), the BJP would have swept the polls in three seats in north Karnataka and one in coastal Karnataka, where the saffron party is considered to be strong.

But, the BJP, which managed to win only one — Doddaballapur — of the four seats in old Mysore region, would have lost even that seat had there been a pre-poll tie-up.

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