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The road to Copenhagen

With his assertion that the scientific evidence is beyond dispute, and his promise to open a new chapter in the U.S. approach, President Barack Obama has raised hopes of a strong climate change agreement emerging from the United Nations conference to be held in Copenhagen in December. The challenge before Mr. Obama is to flesh out his vision on climate change, and turn tough circumstances dominated by a faltering economy into green economic advantage. He plans to introduce a national cap-and-trade mechanism for carbon emissions and spend $15 billion a year to catalyse private initiatives in solar, wind, next generation bio-fuel, and clean coal technologies. These investments are expected to help create at least five million well-paid jobs in the United States. The great hope now is that this significant change of stance will enable the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) to produce a balanced, equitable, effective, and ratifiable protocol for the future. Such a protocol can convince wary developing countries like India to commit themselves to a cut in their growing carbon emissions. There are several technical areas that need to be brought under the ambit of the post-Kyoto agreement for 2013. Nobel laureate Al Gore has emphasised the importance of including in the new treaty deforestation and ‘carbon sinks’ such as grazing lands and farms.

The UNFCCC estimates that in order to achieve its ‘most stringent scenario,’ a new treaty must persuade industrialised countries that by 2020 they must cut emissions by 25 to 40 per cent from 1990 levels. That goal will require huge additional investments. The European Commission has pointed out that if developing countries were also to cut their emissions significantly, about $224 billion a year would need to be spent by the target date. These ballpark estimates underscore the need to devise fund-raising mechanisms based on the ‘polluter pays’ principle. In this context, the developing world has raised a legitimate demand: developed countries must transfer technology liberally and set up funding mechanisms of scale for mitigation and adaptation. A revamped Clean Development Mechanism that supports the best technologies is an imperative. China and Brazil have launched proactive schemes to reduce emissions. India, which used to bring up the rear in the international debate and action on climate change, announced its own National Action Plan on Climate Change in 2008 with eight component missions. It must get serious about pursuing these missions if it hopes to make a mark at Copenhagen.

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