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U.S.-Russia: focus on nuclear arms cuts

— Photos: Agencies

Joseph Biden (left) has called for the renewal of the verification procedures in the START, and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has welcomed the initiative to cut nuclear arsenals.

Nuclear arms cuts look set to top the agenda of Russian-American relations, as the new U.S. administration has vowed to improve relations with Russia.

Speaking at a security conference in Munich on Saturday, Vice-President Joseph Biden offered an olive branch to Moscow. “The last few years have seen a dangerous drift in relations between Russia and our [NATO] alliance,” he said. “T o paraphrase President [Barack] Obama, it’s time to press the reset button and to revisit the many areas where we can and should be working together with Russia.”

Mr. Biden said the U.S. and Russia should “renew the verification procedures in the START [Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty] and then go beyond the existing treaties to negotiate deeper cuts in both our arsenals.” This marks a major reversal of the policy of George W. Bush, who rejected Russia’s persistent efforts at negotiating a replacement for the 1991 START, which expires at the end of 2009.

Under the pact, the U.S. and Russia halved their nuclear stockpiles from the previous total of 10,000 warheads to 5,000 warheads each. In May 2002, the two sides signed the Moscow Treaty, which committed them to further reducing the number of operationally deployed nuclear warheads, on each side, to no more than 1,700-2,200 warheads by 2012. However, the agreement did not lead to any real reduction in nuclear arms, as the provision for “operationally deployed warheads” inserted in the text by U.S. negotiators, despite Russian objections, allowed the sides to stockpile dismantled warheads instead of destroying them. In another major departure from START, the Moscow Treaty did not envisage any verification procedure.

The Obama administration has leaked plans to push for an 80-per cent cut in nuclear arsenals compared with the START level. Washington is yet to send formal proposals to Moscow, but the former Secretary of State, Henry Kissinger, is reported to have visited Russia in December on a secret mission to try and win President Dmitry Medvedev’s support for Mr. Obama’s proposal for the U.S. and Russia to cut their nuclear arsenals to 1,000 warheads on each side.

Moscow welcomed the U.S. initiative. “We are ready to go for further reductions and limitations, provided of course Russia’s national security interests are taken care of,” Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said. Mr. Lavrov’s reference to national security interests is not accidental. The U.S. offer of slashing the nuclear arsenals will only be acceptable to Moscow if Washington agrees to reverse its plans to build a global missile shield.

In 2002, the U.S. walked out of the 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) Treaty with the Soviet Union. The pact banned the sides from deploying national missile defence systems. The treaty guaranteed that neither side would be tempted to launch a nuclear attack against the other under the cover of a missile shield. The withdrawal from the ABM Treaty opened the way for the U.S. to build a global anti-missile system that has been declared a top defence priority.

For Russia to agree to radical cuts in its nuclear arsenals while the U.S. still pursues its missile shield would amount to unilateral disarmament.

“The 1,000-warhead limit proposed by Mr. Obama would be too low for Russia to maintain nuclear deterrence,” said Dr. Alexander Khramchikhin of the Moscow Institute of Political and Military Analysis.

In the event of a military conflict, the U.S. need not even use its nuclear weapons to wipe out the Russian missiles, he said. “The U.S. would be capable of destroying Russian land-based missiles, which constitute the bulk of Russia’s nuclear arsenals, with the help of high-precision non-nuclear strikes. Any remaining missiles Russia may launch in retaliation would be knocked out by the U.S. missile defence system.”

A Russian arms negotiator said any further cut in nuclear arsenals would hinge on the U.S. willingness to return to curbs on missile defences. “We must discuss not only reductions in strategic nuclear weapons but also problems of demilitarisation of outer space and a return to a modified version of the ABM Treaty,” the Interfax news agency quoted the Russian official as saying.

However, Mr. Biden said in Munich that the U.S. would “continue to develop missile defences to counter a growing Iranian capability.” Washington has cited the perceived Iranian threat as justification for its plans to build a missile shield in Eastern Europe. Moscow has vehemently objected to the plan, saying it is part of the U.S. global missile defences targeting Russian strategic arsenals.

If Washington refuses to scrap the missile shield plan, there is little chance that Moscow will agree to radical nuclear cuts.

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