Kerala - Kochi   

Recession has not reached State yet: expert

KOCHI: Doomsday forecasters and gloom reports notwithstanding, the Kerala economy has not yet felt the harsh blow of the global recession, especially its fallout on the Gulf countries where over two million Malayalis are employed.

“There is no hardcore evidence showing that the Kerala economy has been hit by global recession and the lay-offs and retrenchments in the Gulf,” S. Irudaya Rajan of the Centre for Development Studies, Thiruvananthapuram, who is an expert on international labour migration, told The Hindu.

“There is no need for panic as yet,” Prof. Rajan said. “As researchers, we look for hard facts and concrete evidence to arrive at conclusions on the state of the economy. But, as of now, the impact is minimal. A month from now, it could be a different story altogether, though.” Prof. Irudayarajan had initiated the study of the economic impact of Gulf migration on Kerala and had written books on the topic.

He also discounted news reports about large-scale return migration of Malayali Gulf workers. Kerala being a big ‘labour-sending country,’ he pointed out, return migration was an ongoing process, particularly because most of the workers were employed in the Gulf on contract. This was cyclical return migration of labour.

He also noted that a detailed economic survey on migration conducted in the State during June-December last did not throw up evidence of recession in the Gulf impacting Kerala. The extensive study had covered 15,000 households in 300 locations in Kerala. The study is funded by the Department of NoRKA.

The CDS, on the request of the Union Ministry of Overseas Indian Affairs (MOIA), on February 3 held a meeting to assess the impact and likely fallout of the global recession on the country, especially on Kerala.

Economists, researchers and other professionals attended the meeting.

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