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An ‘outsider’ vs local candidates

The official map of the Thiruvananthapuram Lok Sabha constituency resembles a “V.”. But who will emerge victorious at the end of the day in this constituency that is attracting global attention because one of the contestants has an international profile is a question not easy to answer. The Congress has fielded the former United Nations Under Secretary-General, Shashi Tharoor. His opponents are Communist Party of India district secretary P. Ramachandran Nair , the Bharatiya Janata Party State president P.K. Krishnadas and former Minister and Bahujan Samajwadi Party leader A. Neelalohithadasan Nadar. The contest could get further muddled if Vijayan Thomas, chairman of the Congress television channel Jaihind, decides to stay put as a rebel.

Mr. Tharoor has flown in with “special landing rights” from the Congress high command. The local Congress air traffic control (ATC,” the Congress workers, initially flashed the red light, but once it became known that Mr. Tharoor has a direct ticket, the opposition simply melted. In fact, Mr. Tharoor’s takeoff has been quite smooth unlike some of his fellow Congress contestants .

The usual factors such as caste equations, strong pro-Left and anti-Left sentiments, the influence of impartial voters and the stature of candidates will have a bearing on the outcome. The contours of the constituency have marginally changed following delimitation. But political parties do not expect this to alter the voting preferences.The “N” factor — the Nadars and Nairs — is likely to play an important role.

Mr. Tharoor’s international profile could work in his favour or against him. His glamour and professional achievements might go down well with youth, women and the educated sections in the urban areas. But it also remains to be seen how effectively he reaches out to the common people across the constituency. The Congress’ assessment is that Mr. Tharoor will be able to attract a large number of impartial votes, something which O. Rajagopal did here in 2004 as a BJP candidate. It also feels that Mr. Tharoor would help it draw its confirmed but indifferent voters on polling day, with a fair and beneficial fallout in other seats.

His opponents are no pushovers. Mr. Ramachandran Nair, with his unassuming outlook and affable nature, could well claim to be a “local candidate”. He has kept a low profile, but his appeal to ordinary people cannot be underestimated. A few campaign hiccups that Mr. Tharoor might face, for example, his Coca Cola links and his stand on the Indo-U.S. nuclear agreement, could help Mr. Nair refine his electioneering. Mr. Nair’s experience as election manager for big names such as P. K. Vasudevan Nair will come in handy in charting out strategies and tactics to overcome shortcomings caused by dissonance in the LDF and the admittedly poor show of the LDF Government.

Neelalohithadasan Nadar, BSP candidate, could give pose a headache to the UDF and the LDF candidates. He is obviously banking on the Nadar vote bank and his candidature assumes significance in the context of the community’s show of strength through the successful conduct of the Nadar Mahasammelan. Mr. Nadar hopes to made good the loss of the pre-dominantly Nadar Kattakada Assembly segment to Attingal by polarising Dalit votes around BSP chief Mayawati and the BSP plank. He could cut into both the LDF and UDF vote banks.

The BJP will be making a strong bid to build on its presence in Thiruvananthapuram, seen as one of the few constituencies in the State where it stands a chance of making an electoral breakthrough. The party has fielded its State president Krishnadas to erase its poor show in the 2005 by-election when its candidate C.K. Padmanabhan, former State president, lost his deposit and could not come any where near Mr. Rajagopal who got more than 2 lakh votes in 2004.

Mr. Tharoor’s presence here will also open up the “insider-outsider” debate. There are some Congress leaders who are sceptical about his candidature and wonder whether he will be able to navigate through the devilish caste and communal equations unique to the capital constituency. They also feel that they will have to live through the negative long term impact Mr. Tharoor’s candidature would have on some of the pro-UDF Assembly segments even if he happens to win the seat.

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