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Thursday, Apr 16, 2009
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The Red Corridor goes to the polls

Nearly one-third of the Scheduled Tribe population in the country will vote in this first phase.

Did a security expert draw up the map for the first phase of polling? The map of districts affected by naxalite and other forms of violence resembles the map of this phase very closely. Clearly, the Election Commission wanted the most challenging constituencies to go the polls in the first phase itself in order to provide adequate security. The 124 Lok Sabha constituencies for which voting will be held on April 16 comprise the Red Corridor, North Eastern Hills and, of cour se Kerala, for reasons of the weather.

Going by the fantasies of some Maoists and the fears of the security establishment, the much talked about Red Corridor connects the Maoists in Andhra Pradesh to their counterparts in Nepal. It begins with the Telangana region of Andhra Pradesh and includes some coastal areas, including the legendary Srikakulam. This directly links with the Bastar region of Chhattisgarh, the home of ‘Salwa Judum,’ the State-sponsored civil militia movement that has invited the severe indictment of human rights groups. This is flanked by Vidarbha in Maharashtra and Western Orissa, areas with pockets of adivasis and a very limited presence of naxalites. Further north, we have the naxalite-affected areas of Jharkhand, which connect to Bhojpur region in Central and a part of North Bihar. This, in turn, borders the far-eastern region of Poorvanchal in Uttar Pradesh that provides the final link with the Tarai region of Nepal.

Exploited regions

This constitutes some of the poorest, underdeveloped and exploited regions in the country; it also includes some mineral rich areas with concentrated pockets of adivasis. Nearly one-third of the Scheduled Tribe population in the country will vote in this first phase. Telangana, Vidarbha, Western Orissa and Poorvanchal are victims of regional backwardness within their respective States and have witnessed movements for autonomy. A recent report of the Planning Commission has stressed the linkage between naxalite violence and the miserable human development indicators in these areas.

Turnout levels

How does this translate into politics? The naxalite factor has not affected turnout levels very much. Last time, the turnout in phase one constituencies was a shade higher than the national average, thanks to the inclusion of Kerala, where the turnout is traditionally high. Despite security problems, the north-eastern hill States also recorded a high turnout. True, Telangana and Western Orissa and the naxalite-affected areas of Jharkhand recorded a slightly lower turnout than the other parts of their respective States, but this was not true of Vidarbha. As for Chhattisgarh, the turnout tends to be lower than national average. Some constituencies directly affected by naxalite violence have occasionally witnessed lower turnout. But in general, the routine boycott calls issued by underground groups have had a very limited effect on turnout.

The same holds for voting preferences in this area. None of the major parties of the organised Left are a substantial presence in the Red Corridor. The only exception is the CPI(ML), which contests elections in Jharkhand, Bihar and UP. Over the years, following its bold decision to participate in the election process, the party has lost its initial momentum.

The undivided CPI had a substantial presence in Telangana, which contributed the largest number of CPI MPs in the first Lok Sabha. A small but crucial residue of this strength survives in the support for the CPI(M), an ally of the Telugu Desam Party-led Mahakootami (Grand Alliance). In the first phase, 17 parliamentary seats in Telangana and five coastal seats go to polls. The Grand Alliance of the TDP, Left and the Telegana Rashtriya Samithi pose a formidable challenge to the ruling Congress here. The TDP has finally committed itself to the formation of Telangana; despite their difficulties with each other, the two allies have a base to exploit in this area. The Praja Rajyam is not a major player here. If the Congress can win half the seats or even a little less than this, it can hope to make up in the second phase. But if the Grand Alliance sweeps this region, then the Congress will find it difficult to get a majority in the State Assembly. Telangana may witness the most exciting battle in this phase, but this contest has little to do with either class issues or poverty.

In this phase, Kerala is the only place where Left and class-based politics will matter. This time the going is particularly tough for the ruling Left Democratic Front, which pulled off an unprecedented victory last time. Electoral history suggests that the United Democratic Front does a little better in parliamentary elections. The LDF government under V. S. Achutanandan has been paralysed by serious differences between the Chief Minister and the CPI(M)’s State secretary Pinarayi Vijayan. The CPI(M) has had problems with it allies and its attempts to court Muslim votes with the help of the Madhani-led PDP have invited ideological objections. In a State where a small swing can result in a huge difference, these factors could have serious electoral consequences for the ruling LDF. The question is whether the LDF can retain some of its old bastions.

In other areas, issues of backwardness and deprivation hardly feature in the political contestation. In Chhattisgarh, the only other large State in which all constituencies go to the polls in the first phase, there is little suspense about electoral outcome. The BJP won the Assembly elections held in December last year. If that pattern is repeated, the ruling party should pick up seven out of the 11 seats in the State. But if the incumbent government gets a bonus, as it did last time, it could well sweep the State.

The hill States in the north-east are too small to impact on the result of a Lok Sabha election, but the expectation of a fragmented verdict may give them greater visibility. The sole seat of Mizoram could go to the Congress if the Assembly election pattern in December is repeated; however, it is premature to rule out the MNF. The incumbent NPF, which occasionally ties up with the BJP, appears well placed in Nagaland. The ruling Congress has an advantage in one seat in Arunachal, while Meghalaya might repeat its split verdict.

Window of opportunity

If Telangana throws a challenge to the Congress, Vidarbha in Maharashtra offers the window of opportunity. Last time the Congress was swept off its traditional bastion, thanks to the Bahujan Samaj Party. Although the BSP continues to be relevant this time, the Congress-NCP alliance will be looking at making gains at the expense of BJP-Shiv Sena alliance. This area has benefited from good crops and some imaginative relief measures for farmers.

In Orissa, the split between the BJD and the BJP will work mainly to the advantage of the Congress in the Western region that goes to polls in this phase. The Congress won both its seats last time in this region. The BJD has been traditionally weaker here and used to draw upon the BJP, which voiced the grievances of the ‘Kaushal’ region. Though Kandhamal falls here, the anti-Christian violence is not much of an issue in the elections. The Congress’ traditional support among the adivasis survives.

Any gains the Congress may make in Orissa will be offset by almost certain losses in Jharkhand, where the UPA swept last time. The political farce of the Independent-led government and the virtual disintegration of the Congress alliance appears to have paved the way for the BJP’s return. But Babulal Marandi’s Jharkhand Vikas Manch is a serious obstacle in the BJP’s way. The dream of the new State has turned sour with the entire political establishment having failed itself.

The Bhojpur region in Bihar and Uttar Pradesh is an example of how modern politics has split a single cultural-linguistic zone. The Uttar Pradesh part of Bhojpur, often called Poorvanchal, has become the stronghold of the BSP and the SP which had split five seats apiece last time. If we go by the 2007 Assembly elections, the BSP has a lead in eight seats here. This could matter since the Samajwadi Party has had difficulties retaining its traditional Muslim support after the growth of small Muslim parties in this region. Mayawati is more interested in pursuing the sizeable Brahmin community here rather than consolidating her votes among the non-Dalit poor.

Direct fight

In the Bhojpur of Bihar, it is a direct fight between the ruling JD(U)-BJP combine and the RJD-LJP alliance with the Congress playing a small spoiler. In 2004, Lalu Prasad’s grand alliance had swept this region. Since then, the JD(U) has recovered a lot of ground and the RJD-led alliance is weaker than before. The real issue here, as in the rest of Bihar, is whether development or caste coalitions will prevail.

Most analysts over-estimate the electoral importance of the development work done by the Nitish Kumar government as well as how much the fruits of this have reached the bottom of society. At the same time, they underestimate the formidable coalition of Muslims, Yadavs and Dalits forged by the RJD and the LJP.

(Research support: Dr. Sanjeer Alam, Himanshu Battacharya)

[Yogendra Yadav is Senior Fellow at CSDS and Editor of Samayik Varta. Research support for this article by Dr Sanjeer Alam and Himanshu Bhattacharya]

Elections 2009 — Comprehensive coverage

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