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It’s the turn of the rural heartland

Despite the lack of focus on agrarian issues, the second phase of polling will see about one out of every three agricultural labourers in the country casting his or her vote today, says Yogendra Yadav

At first sight, the map of the second phase of polling has no political shape or pattern.

The linear movement of security forces appears to have dictated the choice of constituencies in this phase which, as the biggest, involves one-quarter of the country. As you move southwards from the Red Corridor that polled in the first phase, you hit coastal Andhra, Rayalaseema and the contiguous areas of Karnataka. On the east, coastal Orissa and on the west the vast territory of Marathwada, Western Maharashtra and Mahakoshal region of Madhya Pradesh. Up north, the remaining part of Jharkhand, which includes the Santhal Parganas. From Bhojpur on the Uttar Pradesh-Bihar border, which polled in the first phase, the election has moved westwards in U.P. and eastwards in Bihar. Add to it the remaining pockets in the Northeast, mainly the Brahmaputra valley in Assam, and you have the map of this phase.

A close look at the demographic composition of these constituencies reveals a hidden pattern. This phase involves the rural heartland of India. In a country with a large rural population, it is true that every phase will be predominantly rural; but this one is excessively so. Although metros such as Bangalore and Pune go to polls in this phase, the share of the urban vote in this phase is only 22 per cent. As many as 102 constituencies — or 73 per cent of the total in this phase — are rural (that is, where city dwellers constitute less than a quarter of the population). Of all the Lok Sabha constituencies, 63 per cent are rural by this definition.

Of the workforce, farmers and agricultural labour constitute about 71 per cent in this phase. One out of every three agricultural labourers in the country could be casting his or her vote today. Given this, you might have expected the election campaign to focus on agrarian issues. But that did not happen. A generation ago, there was at least the rhetoric of India living in her villages and the average Indian being a farmer. Now, the political class and the media have come together to manufacture a loud silence on the concerns of rural and agrarian India. The second phase of polls is a study in why the vast population in rural India has not become a politically salient constituency.

The 25 constituencies that go to polls in Maharashtra today are the best off areas in this rural heartland. They comprise the sugar belt in Western Maharashtra, North Maharashtra, rural Konkan and most of Marathwada. The Congress retains some of its famous rural base and the NCP represents the clout of the better off farmers. Over the last decade or more, the Congress-NCP control of sugar cooperatives and their hold over the Maratha vote have declined. Despite that the two parties picked up 14 seats in this region in 2004 and bettered their performance in the Assembly election later that year. Reports suggest the Congress-NCP alliance has made gains in the first phase, mainly in Vidarbha. They can add to this in Marathwada, thanks to the weaning away of Maratha votes from the Shiv Sena. But there is a possibility that these gains will be squandered in western Marathwada due to infighting: factional fights within the Congress, within the NCP, and non-cooperation between the two allies. As a result, the BJP-Shiv Sena alliance may avoid a major setback.

This first phase for Karnataka involves 17 constituencies in the State’s east, west and north, an area that cuts across political regions. The BJP, which has added peasants to its urban political base, is seeking to snatch a few seats from the Congress; of the eight seats the Congress won in the State, seven were from this area. The BJP State government is not terribly popular. Operation Kamal and the allegations of proximity to the mining lobby have dented it more than the fallout of the Mangalore incident. Yet, it is too early for anti-incumbency to set in, especially since this is a Lok Sabha election. The Congress is still as faction ridden as it was during the Assembly election. At a time when an urban-oriented Congress leadership relies on its rural base without actively addressing agrarian concerns, the JD(S) is trying hard to expand beyond its rural base.

In Madhya Pradesh, the BJP is looking to replicate its victory in the recent Assembly election. It led in all but one of the 13 constituencies in the tribal belt that goes to the polls today. The popularity of Shivraj Singh Chauhan and continued infighting within the Congress will work to the BJP’s advantage. In Jharkhand too, the BJP will hope to increase its tally and make substantial gains over 2004. This is largely a result of the formation of an unusual government, led by an Independent and backed by the Congress and JMM. Unlike last time, the non-BJP forces are in complete disarray.

In political terms, the keenest political battle will be fought in Andhra Pradesh and Orissa. Both States have simultaneous elections to the Lok Sabha and State Assembly, leading to a very high turnout last week. The spectre of a ‘hung assembly’ cannot be ruled out in both States, as the ruling parties have done poorly in the first phase. Credible political reports from Andhra Pradesh suggest that the Grand Alliance may have established a clear lead over the Congress in Telangana and the north coastal regions that went to polls last week. The second phase involves the rest of coastal Andhra and Rayalaseema, where the Congress is expected to do much better in a triangular contest with the TDP and the Praja Rajyam Party, especially in Rayalaseema. The real questions are whether the Congress lead in the second phase is enough to offset its deficit in the first and whether this will be enough for a clear majority in the Assembly.

In Orissa too, the ruling Biju Janata Dal appears to have paid heavily, in the first phase, for its break up with the BJP. As the battle shifts to the BJD’s traditional stronghold in the second phase — to the more developed and urbanised region of coastal Orissa — the party will be hoping it wipes out any deficit that has carried over. The trouble is that the BJP, earlier a non-factor in this part of Orissa, is emerging as a serious third contender. It has gathered many ex-BJD members, who Chief Minister Naveen Patnaik has antagonised and discarded. The BJD’s hopes of securing a majority rest on the assumption that a triangular contest would work to its advantage, just as it worked to the Congress’ advantage in the first phase. The keenness of the political competition in both these States does not mean a greater emphasis on the issues that concern villagers. In Andhra Pradesh, it has been limited to promising freebies. In Orissa, the low level of politicisation and absence of a politically active peasant community continues to contribute towards downgrading agrarian issues.

The lie of the political land is radically different in the Northeast. In Assam, the ruling Congress is on a very sticky wicket. Its recovery among the Assamese-speaking Hindus is under threat from the AGP-BJP alliance, which appears to be working this time. From the other end, the Muslim outfit AUDF is taking away a big chunk of minority votes. The Congress will be lucky to retain a few of its seats here.

In Manipur, the ruling Congress hopes to retain the Inner Manipur seat, while the ‘ethnicisation’ of the quadrangular contest in Outer Manipur remains a challenge for everyone. The Left’s dominance appears to be unchallenged in both seats in Tripura.

In Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, the electoral contest is about settling the primary questions of social dominance and securing basics of governance. Both the States reported a very low turnout in the first phase. In Bihar, the social coalition of the RJD-LJP, which appears to have faced reverses in the first phase, is clearly on the backfoot. The Lalu-Paswan combine has a lot to lose in the second phase, as they won 10 of the 13 seats that go to polls today. The Congress’ ability to draw some support among the Muslims has added to the worries of the RJD supremo. The NDA would expect to make significant gains in this phase on basis of the popularity of the Nitish Kumar government and the inroads the party has made among the lower OBCs and the Maha-Dalits.

In Uttar Pradesh, this round is mainly a contest between the SP and the BSP. Both are worried by the indications from the first round. The Brahmin vote does not seem to have swung to the BSP, while the SP faces a serious erosion in Muslim votes. The BJP is reported to have done better than it was expected to. The SP’s relevance for the post-poll ‘games’ in New Delhi will depend on whether it can retain most of the 10 seats it won here.

You would have expected a political contest for rural votes to result in some attention to the state of rural infrastructure, the fate of agricultural labour and the crisis of Indian agriculture. Instead all you get is some generalised talk of ‘development’ and lots of promises of freebies from cheap rice to colour TVs and even cash transfers. You might have expected some serious debate on the NREGA and loan waivers for farmers, the two big policy measures for rural India in recent times. Instead, you find that even the party that took these initiatives is not really interested in promoting and publicising them. India may still live in her villages. But rural India remains largely invisible in this democratic exercise.

[Yogendra Yadav is Senior Fellow at CSDS and Editor of Samayik Varta. yogendra.yadav@gmail.com. Research support for this article by Dr Sanjeer Alam and Himanshu Bhattacharya]

Corrections and Clarifications

The graphic accompanying a report "It's the turn of the rural heartland" ("Elections 2009" page , April 23, 2009) showed that in Phase 2, the "Demographics statistics report" gave the break-up of the total 148 seats as SC-17, ST-14, Muslims-15 and Rural-102. A reader said the total seats in the second phase of elections was 141 (of which the Inner Manipur election was over on April 22). Mr. Yogendra Yadav, Senior Fellow Centre for the Study of Developing Societies, New Delhi, (and who wrote the article) clarifies that these categories are not mutually exclusive. The same seat can be Rural and SC/ST reserved, or have a significant Muslim population and be rural and SC/ST reserved. And there are some constituencies that fall in none of these categories. Hence the total can exceed the total number of seats.

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