Kerala - Kochi   

Monsoon to be normal, with significant variations: expert

KOCHI: Other things remaining the same, the south-west monsoon, Kerala’s main source of water and electricity, will be ‘normal’ this year and will hit the State at the end of May or early June.

According to atmospheric scientist and monsoon expert C.K. Rajan, though the quantum rainfall will be more or less the same as last few years’, there will be wider variations in distribution in terms of space and time. That is, the rainfall will vary widely from June to September across the State. This variation, rather than the total quantum of rainfall, will be significant for Kerala in fields such as agriculture, power generation and so on.

“It will not be a bad monsoon this time, neither will it be a very active one,” Dr. Rajan who until recently headed Cochin University’s Centre for Monsoon Studies, told The Hindu. “It will be normal within the range of 5-10 per cent.” He noted that over the past five to seven years, there had been major changes in the quantum of rainfall in the State in the south-west monsoon period of June to September. This could be an indicator of climate change due to global warming.

Generally, northern Kerala gets three times more rainfall than southern Kerala during the southwest monsoon. Roughly, Thiruvananthapuram gets 90-100 cm of rainfall during the monsoon while Kannur gets 300-320 cm; and the Kochi region gets around 200 cm. Now, while the total rainfall remains almost the same, the variations are much wider. For instance, southern Kerala used to get more rainfall in June, and the north in July. This pattern is now being upset.

“These local variations are important as agriculture and other activities were scheduled around the rainfall pattern,” Dr. Rajan said. He suggested that the public should be sensitive to these variations and reschedule their seasonal activities accordingly. This would to some extent mitigate the effects of climate change, he said.

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