Tamil Nadu - Erode   

Erode Parliamentary constituency a difficult terrain to predict

ERODE: Erode Parliamentary constituency, as is known, has been formed anew after the Election Commission of India’s latest delimitation exercise.

It has parts of the now-scrapped Tiruchengode and Palani Parliamentary constituencies.

The constituency includes Komarapalayam, Erode East, Erode West, Modakurichi, Dharapuram, a reserved constituency, and Kangayam Assembly constituencies.

Of the aforementioned six, Komarapalayam, Erode West and East have been created anew. While Komarapalayam has been carved out of Tiruchengode Assembly constituency, Erode West and East have been formed after bifurcating the then Erode Assembly constituency.

Modakurichi Assembly segment was until recently part of the Tiruchengode Parliamentary constituency and Dharapuram and Kangayam were with the Palani Parliamentary constituency.

That apart, the Erode Parliamentary constituency is spread over three Revenue districts, Komarapalayam is a part Namakkal, Erode West and East are in Erode and Dharapuram and Kangayam are with the newly-formed Tirupur.

By not being a composite unit, as in being spread over three districts, and comprising new Assembly segments it is a challenging task to say anything in certain about the poll outcome of the Erode Parliamentary constituency.

For, the caste equation changes with the terrain and so do the issues facing the electorate.

And not only that, the results of the previous Parliamentary or Assembly elections cannot be used to say anything concrete except perhaps serve as broad pointers.

For example, in three of the six Assembly constituencies Modakurichi, Dharapuram and Kangayam the electorate voted for the DMK-led Democratic Progressive Alliance in the last Assembly elections.

In Erode too they elected a DMK candidate but then the Assembly constituency has been divided and parts of Perundurai have been included in Erode West.

Incidentally, Perundurai has an AIADMK MLA. Komarapalayam is not an Assembly constituency yet but voters therein, as part of the Tiruchengode Assembly constituency, have elected an AIADMK MLA.

Not only that, political alliance is not the same as it was during the 2004 Assembly elections and that could also impact voting pattern.

For example, in Dharapuram, and Modakurichi DMK candidate P. Prabavathi and Congress’ R.M. Palanisami won the 2004 Assembly election by a margin of just about 4,000 votes.

With the change in political equations, it is anybody’s guess as to how the voters will vote.

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