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Fresh initiatives in SCO expansion

The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) has announced plans to establish defence cooperation with the countries having observer status in this regional security group.

At their meeting in Moscow last week the Defence Ministers of the SCO decided to invite India and other observer states — Iran, Pakistan and Mongolia — to take part in military activities of the six-member organisation, which unites Russia , China, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan.

“We intend to consider the possibility of incorporating joint activities with [the observer states] in the [defence] cooperation plan of the SCO for 2012-2013,” said Russia’s Defence Minister Anatoly Serdyukov.

The decision to invite the observer states to SCO war games is part of Russia’s efforts to facilitate their eventual integration in the organisation as full members. The SCO expansion has been an issue of heated debate ever since the organisation’s establishment in 2001. Russia has strongly supported India’s membership, while China effectively blocked it by insisting on simultaneous admission of India and Pakistan. The induction of India would help prevent the balance of influence in the SCO from being tipped in favour of China. For the same reason Moscow favoured Iran’s membership, while Beijing was opposed to it. A compromise was worked out in 2005 when India, Iran and Pakistan were granted observer status in the SCO. Mongolia became observer somewhat earlier, while Afghanistan received the informal status of a special guest. In 2006 the SCO announced a temporary moratorium on the admission of new members till it works out criteria and procedures for further expansion.

Meanwhile, diplomatic efforts to facilitate the SCO expansion continued. At the summit meeting in Dushanbe in September 2008 the SCO agreed to promote closer interaction with the observer nations. Russia’s President Dmitry Medvedev said the observers would be invited to participate in the organisation’s Regional Anti-Terrorist Structure (RATS), as well as in the meeting of transport and trade ministers. The SCO leaders also decided to hold special meetings with the heads of state of the observer nations on the sidelines of the SCO annual summits.

The work with the observer states will be elevated to a qualitatively higher plane and will be organised so as to allow their views to be taken into consideration, the SCO leaders said in the communique on their summit in Dushanbe.

The SCO leaders further agreed to set up a working group to study political, legal, organisational and financial aspects of the organisation’s enlargement as a step towards lifting their moratorium on admission of new members.

In an effort to extend the SCO’s regional and global reach, the Dushanbe summit instituted the status of dialogue partner in addition to the institute of observers. The SCO leaders approved the rules and procedures for granting the new status to international organisations and individual countries.

The invitation to the observer states to join the defence and security activities of the SCO is a further step towards their greater integration into the organisation. While Pakistan and Iran are likely to embrace the offer, as both countries have long been campaigning for upgrading their status to full membership, the reaction of India will be interesting to watch. Till now India has been reluctant to become involved in the SCO security arrangements. In August 2007 official sources told The Hindu that India would like to steer clear of aligning with the grouping in military, strategic and political terms, even as it was keen to be a hands-on participant in improving trade, economic and cultural linkages with the SCO member-states. New Delhi has been apparently put off by the growing profile of the SCO as a counterweight to the U.S. and NATO in Central Asia. Even though the SCO ruled out becoming a military block, it has been steadily expanding its security and military agenda. In August 2007 the alliance held its first large-scale military exercises involving thousands of troops, hundreds of tanks and dozens of aircraft. It has since been decided to stage joint war games every other year.

Now that Russia and the U.S. have declared their resolve to push a reset button and reverse the downward trend in their bilateral ties, India may be less apprehensive about taking part in the SCO’s defence activities. India’s response to the evolving situation in and around the SCO may come through as early as next month when the SCO holds its annual summit in the Russian city of Yekaterenburg.

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