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The new factor

The story of the 2009 Lok Sabha election in Maharashtra is the reversal of fortunes of the two major combinations when compared to 2004, with the Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) of Raj Thackeray playing a significant role. That the Congress-Nationalist Congress Party alliance won 25 of the 48 seats, as against the Bhartiya Janata Party-Shiv Sena combine’s tally of 20, was largely due to the surprising performance of the MNS, which divided the Marathi vote in Mumbai and Thane. Three years ago when Mr. Raj Thackeray broke away from the Shiv Sena to form the MNS, he had found his raison d’etre — salvaging the wounded Marathi pride. Using the Shiv Sena’s shock and awe tactics, he unleashed a violent agitation against a new enemy, North Indians, and blamed them for all the ills besetting the city. While the Sena was busy wooing migrants, the MNS was attacking taxi drivers and shop owners. Mr. Raj Thackeray even demanded a stop to ‘chhatpuja’, a North Indian festival and insisted on Marathi signboards on all shops. Anointing himself as the new defender of Marathi pride, he declared his willingness to get arrested as often as necessary. Though the MNS made its debut in the local body elections soon after it was formed, it was in the Lok Sabha polls that it gave an electrifying performance. Most of its 12 candidates polled over one lakh votes each, two came second. The Shiv Sena was routed in Mumbai and Thane, but it won 11 seats in the rest of the State.

Thanks to the MNS, the Congress won five seats in Mumbai while the NCP secured its maiden triumph in the city. For the first time in years, the NCP claimed Thane and the Congress won the new Bhiwandi seat. While the Shiv Sena is flagging under the soft-spoken Uddhav Thackeray’s leadership, Mr. Raj Thackeray has shaped his outfit into an aggressive new avatar. An ailing Bal Thackeray’s recorded speeches did not draw voters. His nephew’s youth and uncanny resemblance to him struck a chord in the traditional Shiv Sena’s supporters. By articulating their frustrations, Mr. Raj Thackeray upstaged the Sena on its home turf. The ruling Congress alliance’s benevolence to the MNS has paid off richly. Mumbai has a brand new Sena to challenge its cosmopolitan image. The Shiv Sena’s ally too suffered. The BJP lost all the three seats it contested in the city, apart from Bhiwandi, and could muster nine overall, four less than in 2004. While the coming months will see the warring cousins vie for the Marathi vote, this time round Mr. Raj Thackeray has had the last laugh.

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