Opinion - Leader Page Articles   

Engaging Pakistan: task for new government

One of the messages the Indian electorate conveyed during the recent Lok Sabha elections is that the people do not want the government to engage in adventurism in the form of military intervention in our neighbourhood. No one seriously suggested intervening — again — in Sri Lanka, but there were a few proposals for doing so in Pakistan. The 26/11 Mumbai attack generated a two-fold sense of frustration and anger among the citizens: at the government for the disastrous failure of intelligence and lack of instant preparedness to deal with such incidents, and against Pakistan for mounting such an audacious attack on the financial capital of India. In the weeks and months following Mumbai, the public’s bitter resentment at having been let down by the government has probably not diminished by much. But the change of guard in the Home Ministry and the decision to revamp the intelligence set-up might have assuaged the public’s anger to some extent.

As far as Pakistan is concerned, the intensity of the feeling has remained high. However, it never reached the level at which it could be interpreted as a clamour for military action. There was a spate of articles in the media by many experts on Pakistan, including a few former army officers, demanding at least a token military response from the government. With the benefit of hindsight, it can be safely concluded that their opinions were not reflective of the real sentiments of the people. It is doubtful if the electorate went into any profound analysis of the risks involved, given the nuclear factor, in a military intervention even with limited objectives, though one must never underestimate the wisdom and capacity of the people of our country to examine such issues in simple terms. It was probably the innate desire of the people to avoid a war that led them not to demand a military response to Pakistan’s aggression.

If the above analysis has merit, how should it translate into an approach to Pakistan by the re-established UPA government? The international community has applauded India’s restraint, but it wants more from us. Given Pakistan’s fragile domestic situation, with fears being openly aired about Pakistan on the way to becoming a failed state, our friends abroad are asking us to adopt a statesmanlike approach. The argument, with a good deal of plausibility behind it, is that it is India which would be impacted the most by the events going on in Pakistan and hence it is in India’s interest to help Pakistan by, say, offering something to it. In practical terms, this translates into leaving Mumbai behind us and resuming the composite dialogue with Pakistan. The political leadership will have to take a call on these questions. It will have to assess whether the people are ready to forget Mumbai and forgive Pakistan.

It is reasonable to assume that the people definitely want some satisfaction from Pakistan on the Mumbai affair before the government could decide to resume the dialogue. It is this sentiment among the people that has led the new External Affairs Minister, Mr. S.M. Krishna, to declare that the perpetrators of the Mumbai massacre must be brought to credible prosecution before the dialogue can be resumed. What form such satisfaction should take can be worked out only through quiet diplomacy, with the help of friends as may be necessary.

There was a fair amount of consensus in India after Mumbai that the only way to induce change in the behaviour of Pakistan’s effective rulers towards India is through a set of measures that would cause pain to Pakistan’s military. It was also widely recognised that the only country which had such leverage with the Pakistan army was the United States. Six months after Mumbai, far from causing any discomfort to the Pakistan army, the U.S. is showering it with almost an open-ended cheque. The U.S. has now invited China, perhaps much against its better judgment, also to jump into the South Asian maelstrom and extend military assistance to Pakistan. This makes sense from America’s perspective, but is not helpful from India’s.

Whether or not the military and economic assistance by the U.S. and others helps in saving Pakistan from itself remains to be seen; one hopes that it will. Civil society in Pakistan must mobilise itself vigorously against the fundamentalist forces if it believes itself threatened by it; indeed, this is an opportunity for it to become a force to reckon with. However, it is highly improbable that it will bring about a modification in Pakistan’s mindset about India. (It ought to be recognised that, however belatedly, America’s leaders have started making good faith efforts to induce such change in Pakistan.)

It is often said by some western friends that Pakistan genuinely feels insecure vis-À-vis India. Asked about the causes — acts of commission or omission by India — they are often not able to be specific but reiterate that the feeling nevertheless exists. We in India know, as surely as the Pakistan military does, that India has never initiated any conflict with Pakistan. Nonetheless, we need not shy away from reassuring it of our non-aggressive intentions and of our genuine desire to live in peace and good neighbourliness. If nothing else, this would send the right message to the people and civil society in Pakistan. What should such assurances consist of? Statements and declarations by all our leaders since independence do not seem to have had the desired impact. Once again, this is an area where our friends could be of help. We should explore, through their good offices, whether there is anything that India could do to change the mindset of the Pakistan military. The effort would be worth making, even if it does not produce any positive result. (It is probable that Pakistan will ask us to hand over the whole of Kashmir or the entire Valley to it as evidence of our good faith. In that case, the hypocrisy behind the so-called feeling of insecurity would be revealed to all.)

In today’s situation, when Pakistan has to bear the burden of looking after over one million internally displaced persons, India could offer to send significant humanitarian assistance. Perhaps the government has already done so. Given Pakistan’s track record of viewing any action of India with suspicion, the effective authority in Pakistan might be less than enthusiastic about accepting Indian assistance. If nothing else, such assistance, God forbid, might engender goodwill for India among Pakistan’s population — a good enough reason for the establishment in Pakistan not to welcome our offer. We could make the offer through International Red Cross or UNHCR.

Given the existing domestic crisis in Pakistan, its military might feel tempted to initiate or provoke an armed conflict with India. It could assume that the international community would not come down heavily on it, especially if it succeeds in creating an element of doubt about India being the initiator of the conflict. The Taliban could be counted upon to cease all operations inside Pakistan since both the army and the Taliban regard India as their common enemy. They might also draw the wrong conclusion following Mumbai that India has no stomach for war with Pakistan. Such a conclusion would be a grave mistake. If Pakistan’s ISI manages to avoid forming a wrong assessment of India’s will and readiness, the other option available to it is another terrorist attack, maybe not on the scale of Mumbai but nevertheless big enough to cause serious mayhem. Should that happen, the people of India would surely expect a swifter and stronger response. This is one more area where our friends could be used to convey an unambiguous message to Pakistan’s military. This has, no doubt, been done but nothing would be lost in conveying the message once again.

Purposeful diplomacy is best carried out quietly, behind the scenes and out of the gaze of the media.

Printer friendly page  
Send this article to Friends by E-Mail

Stories in this Section

Stalin in line
Rationalising oil prices
Engaging Pakistan: task for new government
Refugees join list of climate-change issues
World’s first manure-powered town
Corrections and Clarifications
PM’s team
Can’t get it right?
Shocking

Copyright © 2009, The Hindu. Republication or redissemination of the contents of this screen are expressly prohibited without the written consent of The Hindu