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Lebanon set for crucial elections

DUBAI: Lebanon is set for crucial elections on Sunday which could see an alliance led by Hizbollah and former Prime Minister Michel Aoun’s Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) edge out the country’s ruling pro-western combination.

The main contestants in the elections are the opposition March 8 forces and the March 14 combine led by Saad Hariri, the son of the slain Lebanese Prime Minister, Rafik Hariri.

The Lebanese Hizbollah, its ally Amal and the FPM are the nucleus of the March 8 forces. The FPM has a wide following especially among a prominent section of the country’s Christian community. Hizbollah enjoys high popularity among Shia’s, the country’s largest religious community. A clan of the Druze community led by Talal Arsalan is also part of the alliance.

Apart from Mr. Hariri, the March 14 combine includes the larger of the Druze clans led by Walid Jumblatt. Two important formations Samir Geagea’s Christian Lebanese Forces and the Kataeb or Christian Phalengist Party are also part of this combination. Analysts point out that Sunday’s elections have far-reaching geopolitical implications, whose impact could be felt far beyond the region. Iran and Syria support the March 8 forces, while Saudi Arabia, France and the United States have been the March 14 combinations chief backers.

Viewed in a larger context, a victory for the March 8 forces would consolidate Iran’s regional influence. Iran already exercises substantial influence in Iraq and neighbour Syria. Observers say that Hizbollah is fielding only 11 candidates for the 128-member Parliament, mainly to counter the charge that the group is ready for Lebanon’s post-election “takeover”. Seats in Parliament are divided along sectarian and communal lines, with Muslims and Christians occupying 64 seats each.

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