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Beleaguered Brown

On Friday, as Prime Minister Gordon Brown reshuffled his Cabinet to stave off a revolt following a spate of ministerial resignations, he looked like a man arranging the deckchairs while the ship was slowly sinking. There were more brutal comparisons. One pro-Labour commentator likened him to a “wounded, exhausted bull” staggering with “multiple knives in his flesh.” Even as Mr. Brown was insisting at a post-reshuffle press conference that he was sti ll in command, the news came that another of his Ministers, Europe Minister Caroline Flint, had abandoned him, accusing him of treating his women colleagues “like female window-dressing.” Yet, just a few hours earlier, she was on television protesting her loyalty to him. Could he trust his other ‘loyal’ colleagues any more? In the current febrile atmosphere, reminiscent of the last days of John Major’s Conservative government before it was wiped out by the New Labour landslide in 1997, there is no knowing who the next assassin will be. Friday’s chaotic events — a shambolic Cabinet reshuffle and Labour’s crushing defeat in county elections — were the culmination of a torrid week for Mr. Brown. A host of high-profile Ministers, including Home Secretary Jacqui Smith and Defence Secretary John Hutton, quit as backbench MPs plotted to oust him through a signature campaign. It is a measure of how much his authority has weakened that Foreign Secretary David Miliband and Chancellor Alistair Darling refused to be “reshuffled.”

Two years ago, when Mr. Brown became Prime Minister, he was hailed as a saviour after Tony Blair’s controversial leadership. But a series of policy blunders, compounded by the MPs’ expenses scandal and his uninspiring style, has all but destroyed him and brought Labour to the brink with a general election less than a year away. There is an ominous whiff of 1981 when the party split under Michael Foot’s leadership, leading to a humiliating defeat in elections held two years later. Labour was to remain in political wilderness for 14 years. Is history about to repeat itself? Polls give Tories a comfortable majority in the Commons if elections were to be held now. Mr. Brown’s own ratings are abysmal. Those calling for a leadership change believe that under a new leader the party can still swing things around, or at least limit the damage. There were moments last week when it looked as if it was all over for Mr. Brown. He has survived for now but the threat persists. Much will depend on the outcome of the European Parliament election, due on Monday. If Labour does as badly as polls suggest, the assassins could return.

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