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Iran on the boil

Thirty years after momentous events brought Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini to the fore as Iran’s man of destiny, his Islamic revolution has skidded into uncharted territory. The official declaration of incumbent President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad as a runaway winner in a hotly disputed and possibly rigged presidential election has generated a white heat of popular anger that has no precedent in Iran’s post-revolution history. The purported victor’s triumphalism a t a huge victory rally was immediately challenged on the streets by close to a million supporters of Mir Hosain Mousavi, the principal opponent. They braved a ban order and choked a nine-kilometre stretch leading to Azadi (Freedom) Square, a prominent Tehran landmark. The unrest has now spread to other cities, including Tabriz, the capital of Mr. Mousavi’s home province, and Shiraz. The Speaker of the Majlis, Ali Larijani, ordered an enquiry into clashes between the police and students, which by Sunday had spread to Tehran University, the nerve centre of student politics in the capital. Interestingly, the widely supported student revolt is being clothed with the symbolism of 1979: by nightfall, Mr. Mousavi’s supporters ascend rooftops and chant ‘Allahu Akbar’ in unison, as young Iranians did three decades ago, responding to the Ayatollah’s call.

Three days after the spontaneous protests began, cracks have opened up in Iran’s complex system of Islamic governance. The explosive situation seems to have divided the country’s clerical establishment, a key power centre. Mehdi Karroubi, an influential cleric and a presidential candidate, has joined Mr. Mousavi in alleging that the election was rigged. Equally significantly, Effat Marashi, wife of former President Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, has expressed her support for the protesters. The regime cannot take Ayatollah Rafsanjani and his family lightly; a one-time Khomeini confidant, he heads the Assembly of Experts, a 86-member body that monitors the conduct of the Supreme Leader and is, at least theoretically, empowered to remove him. Faced with growing internal strife, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who first expressed partisan support for Mr. Ahmadinejad, has asked the supervisory Guardian Council to probe into Mr. Mousavi’s written allegations. However, given the high degree of mistrust and the depth of popular perception that the election was stolen, a partial recount of disputed ballots that the Council has said it was prepared to order will be far from enough. Only a free, fair, and credibly monitored fresh election can heal a nation that is treading a thin line between fear of theocratic authoritarianism and hope of genuine reform that is not in conflict with the revolution’s fundamentals.

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