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Mousavi faces an uphill task

— FILE PHOTOS: AP

Lead challenger of Iran’s Presidential poll Mir-Hosain Mousavi (left) after speaking at a press conference in Tehran. At right is the former President, Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani.

The sweeping intensity of the student-led revolt in support of Mir-Hosain Mousavi, the 67-year-old lead challenger of Iran’s disputed presidential poll, its creativity, and its refusal to cave in to a cascading governmental crackdown have stirred the collective conscience of the cyber-linked millions across the world.

The extraordinary events that followed the announcement of the June 12 election results, which President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad officially won, have already drawn historical parallels. Over the last few days Iranians are walking a thin line between fear and hope, regimentation and liberty. They are drawing contrasting images of living under a regressive theocracy or a sophisticated Islamic revolution that gives expression to the aspirations of their effervescent and cerebral youth. Nearly 70 per cent of Iran’s population is under 30. Iran is also substantially urbanised, with around two-thirds of the people living in the big cities and towns.

The crackdown is intensifying on street demonstrations, which became a daily affair in Tehran soon after the announcement of the results. But Mr. Mousavi’s supporters wonder if the heady events of the last few days would end up like the 1953 fiasco when a Central Intelligence Agency-led coup toppled a legitimate and nationalist Prime Minister, Mohammad Mossadeq. More than half a century later, will Mr. Mousavi end up like Mossadeq — this time a victim of a possible political coup mounted by a theocratic leadership that refuses to adapt? On the contrary, is there enough support to the movement that would, finally, leave the clerical authorities with no option but to change course? Iran’s opposition is being put to its toughest test.

On Friday, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei staked his personal prestige by asserting that there was no room to doubt the fairness of the poll, which, he maintained had led to the emergence of Mr. Ahmadinejad as the winner by an unquestionably high margin. He asserted that the streets of Tehran no longer belonged to the opposition, which, he stressed, must stay indoors or face adverse consequences. He warned Iran’s enemies, including Israel, not to dream of witnessing another colour revolution, similar to the ones which Eastern European countries, once firmly under the grip of the Soviet Union, had experienced.

Ayatollah Khamenei’s decisive intervention has had a dramatic fallout. It has lifted the revolt in Iran to the next level. What started on June 13 as a dispute over numbers in the presidential elections has been turned into a contest between the wide mass of protesters and the current leadership of the Islamic Republic. The Supreme Leader, whose authority since the revolution had remained unquestioned, has been reduced to a controversial figure. The entire system of Islamic governance drawn after the 1979 Islamic revolution has become contested territory. Since Friday, the core of the Islamic system has come under severe strain.

A day after the Supreme Leader’s intervention, Tehran saw its worst violence. Teargas, water cannons and batons reigned over Freedom Square, where a crowd of around 3,000 had assembled to protest. Amateur videos showed bloodied pictures of young people shot on the streets.

A particularly horrifying image was that of a dying young woman, later identified as Neda Agha Soltan, who was shot by an unidentified gunman. For the opposition, she has become a new symbol of revolt. The state media on Saturday reported a suicide bombing at the revered Imam Khomeini shrine. It is a place full of political symbolism, where the revolution’s founder Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini has been laid to rest.

The election results and their aftermath have completely polarised Iran. Though the Mousavi camp has solid and perhaps increasing support, the size of Mr. Ahamdinejad’s political base cannot be underestimated either. Mr. Ahmadinejad has been popular among the country’s poor and lower middle class. Large segments of powerful state institutions, such as the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), and the Basij militia with an estimated strength of 10 million, apparently support him. The President is known to be a sympathiser of the Haqqani school — an influential body based in Qom, Iran’s religious capital. It is headed by Mohammad Taghi Mesbah Yazdi, a formidable cleric who has substantial influence within the Iranian security establishment.

Iran’s tumult has not spared its clergy. There have been reports that the 89-member Assembly of Experts has been meeting in Qom. Headed by the former President, Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, this powerful institution is entrusted with monitoring the activities of the Supreme Leader. Theoretically at least, it has the power even to remove him.

He also heads the Expediency Council, another major public institution entrusted with resolving disputes between Parliament and the supervisory Guardian Council.

So far, Ayatollah Rafsanjani has been the focus of the regime’s angst. In a recent televised debate during the run-up to the elections, Mr. Ahmadinejad openly accused Ayatollah Rafsanjani and his family of corruption. The Supreme Leader in his Friday address praised Ayatollah Rafsanjani for his contribution to the revolution, but introduced the caveat that the two of them held divergent views on many issues.

By Sunday, Ayatollah Rafsanjani received his first major warning to fall in line. Faezeh Hashemi, the former President’s daughter and granddaughter and three family members of his cousin, Hossein Marashi, were arrested. Ms. Hashemi has been an active supporter of Mr. Mousavi. The international media have flashed her pictures all over the world showing her addressing a recent pro-Mousavi rally. Effat Marashi, Ayatollah Rafsanjani’s wife, has backed Mr. Mousavi and issued statements supporting the protesters.

Despite the crackdown, more visible fissures are now appearing in the system. Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani has gone on record to criticise “certain members” of the supervisory Guardian Council of being partial to “a certain presidential candidate” — an obvious reference to President Ahmadinejad. The statement implies a defiance of the Supreme Leader, who has backed the Council by announcing that the election results did express the will of the people.

Reformist clerics organised under the Association of Combatant Clergy, which include the former President, Mohammad Khatami, and Mehdi Karroubi, a presidential candidate in the recent election, support the opposition. Flouting the Supreme Leader’s assertion not to question the polls, Mr. Khatami has demanded the appointment of a neutral panel to review the results. “A fair, professional, impartial and brave team, which is also entrusted by the protesters, and whose judgment can be accepted will be the resolution to the current unrest,” the former President said. He advised the authorities to acknowledge that a large number of people who participated in the election “do not accept the vote result and express their protest against it.”

The IRGC, the main pillar of the revolution, has so far solidly backed the establishment. But various opposition figures are known to exercise influence within its ranks. Mohsen Rezai, who was one of the losers in the latest election, headed the IRGC for eight years during the course of the bitter Iran-Iraq war of the 1980s. Mr. Rezai has since questioned the authenticity of the results.

Iran’s turmoil, in all likelihood, is set to intensify. Various powerful and contradictory forces have been unleashed, and room for backtracking by either side has shrunk. In this situation, a combination of intrigue and purges within the system along with violence on the streets and behind the scenes, between the state and the opposition, can now be expected. A battle for the streets between Mr. Mousavi’s supporters and Mr. Ahmadinejad’s backers, who have being lying low so far, could also start.

Finally, in case the security forces begin to crack up, a hint of civil war cannot also be ruled out. This would spell disaster, for the protesters have not questioned the fundamentals of the revolution, at best only its current crop of leadership. In fact, the protests have been clothed in the symbolism of events that preceded the 1979 revolution. Every night Mr. Mousavi’s supporters ascend the roof-tops and for a few hours chant in unison “Allahu Akbar” exactly the way an earlier generation did at Ayatollah Khomeini’s call.

Essentially, the events in the aftermath of the election results have generated a movement for more civil rights, which are not in contradiction with the revolution’s ideals. The protesters are looking for a new social contract with the state, which is sensitive to the hopes and aspirations of the generation-next which has emerged after the revolution.

In the midst of the heady events witnessed in Iran, the name of a senior cleric, who has been sidelined for years, is beginning to acquire a higher profile. Grand Ayatollah Hossein Ali Montazeri, a dissident cleric who was initially meant to succeed Ayatollah Khomeini, has been asserting himself. Ayatollah Montazeri has expressed his support for the Tehran revolt by rejecting the results of the elections. He has asked Iran’s restive youth to “pursue their rights with patience and restraint,” in line with Mr. Mousavi’s call.

His role could prove crucial as Iran tries to defuse its worst crisis since its 30-year-old high-octane revolution began.

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