Opinion - News Analysis   

No more double games

Pakistan President Asif Ali Zardari is spending most of his time visiting world capitals to win international support against terrorism. His summit meeting with European Union President Vaclav Klaus of the Czech Republic and his recent visit to the headquarters of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) in Brussels represented major efforts to convince the international community that Pakistan is serious about defeating terrorism. Leaders from Washington to London and Moscow to Brussels have had a good word for Mr. Zardari and Pakistan, but most of them are still cautious.

Yet, Mr. Zardari is swiftly losing political support not only among the public at large but in Parliament. A Federal Minister staged a walk-out from the National Assembly recently in protest against the extended power breakdowns in Karachi. Two Federal Ministers belonging to another ally, the Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam, are openly opposing the military operation in the Swat region in South Waziristan. A majority of the people in Pakistan supported the latest offensive by the Pakistani armed forces against the Taliban in the Swat valley. This offensive displaced about 3.5 million people within their own country.

More than five weeks have passed. Without completing the operation, Mr. Zardari has ordered another operation against Taliban leader Baitullah Mehsud in South Waziristan. A majority of the Pakistani people will definitely support any decisive action against Mr. Mehsud, but the Zardari government does not have a smart plan to defeat the Taliban in the tribal areas bordering Afghanistan.

The Zardari government did not take Parliament into confidence before launching Army operations in Swat and South Waziristan. The main opposition party in the National Assembly, Nawaz Sharif’s Pakistan Muslim League (N), supported the operation in Swat but now it has serious reservations about the strategy in South Waziristan. Mr. Sharif held long meetings with his parliamentarians in Islamabad recently and decided to ask the government some tough questions regarding the operation in South Waziristan. He is not happy about the U.S. drone attacks in South Waziristan and has serious reservations with regard to the role of a pro-government militant leader, Qari Zainuddin Mehsud. He is expected to come out against the U.S. policies and Mr. Zardari in the next few days.

The sudden projection of, and the tall claims made in the media by, Mr. Zainuddin Mehsud have raised many questions and created panic among Islamabad’s political and diplomatic circles. In recent interviews given to Pakistani media outlets, Qari Zainuddin Mehsud and his deputy, Haji Turkistani, have alleged that Mr. Baitullah Mehsud is an American and Indian agent, that he was the one who killed Benazir Bhutto and that the real jihad is what is going on in Afghanistan and not what is going on in Pakistan.

Many diplomats contacted officials in the Foreign Office and the Interior Ministry as well as media circles for answers to their questions. Western diplomats were mainly confused over the claim made by Qari Zainuddin Mehsud and Mr. Turkistani that Mr. Baitullah Mehsud was an American agent and that he was the one who killed Benazir. These diplomats were asking a question: if Mr. Baitullah Mehsud was involved in Benazir’s assassination, did it mean the American authorities were involved in that conspiracy? No government official had an answer to that question.

An East European diplomat asked a Foreign Office official another question. The same day that Mr. Zardari visited the NATO headquarters in Brussels, the Pakistani establishment allowed Qari Zainuddin Mehsud to tell the media he believed in a jihad against the NATO troops in Afghanistan. Did this involve a double game with NATO or with Qari Zainuddin Mehsud? Qari Zainuddin Mehsud claimed in his interview that he had developed differences with Baitullah Mehsud after the death of Abdullah Mehsud. He never explained the nature of the differences in any interview.

The story of the real differences between the two is replete with allegations and revelations. According to some sources close to Qari Zainuddin Mehsud, the Pakistani establishment wanted to kill Abdullah Mehsud because he was involved in the kidnapping of two Chinese engineers in 2005. The Pakistani establishment hired the services of Mr. Baitullah Mehsud in 2005 against the one-legged militant Abdullah Mehsud who spent 23 months in the Guantanamo Bay jail. Mr. Baitullah Mehsud first signed a peace agreement with the establishment in February 2005, which ended in July 2005. He reached another agreement immediately after the killing of Abdullah Mehsud in 2007. Then President Pervez Musharraf released 36 militants in exchange for 200 soldiers the day he imposed the state of Emergency in Pakistan on November 3, 2007. Abdullah Mehsud started his anti-Pakistan Army activities after the killing of his colleague Nek Muhammad in 2004, but he was more focussed on the NATO forces in Afghanistan.

Abdullah Mehsud was finally killed on July 24, 2007 in the Zhob area of Baluchistan. Close aides of Abdullah Mehsud alleged that Mr. Baitullah Mehsud helped the security forces hunt down the one-legged militant who was killed as he was coming from Afghanistan. The Pakistan Army claimed that Abdullah Mehsud was killed after a long gun-battle. One Masoodur Rehman Mehsud alleged that Mr. Baitullah Mehsud had actually provided information to the Army about the location of Abdullah Mehsud but later denied having said so.

Masoodur Rehman Mehsud announced his leadership after the death of Abdullah Mehsud. During that tense period, Baitullah Mehsud killed Masoodur Rehman Mehsud using a remote-controlled bomb in South Waziristan.

Qari Zainuddin Mehsud was the elder son of slain militant Masoodur Rehman Mehsud and he decided to take revenge for his father’s murder. He is heading the “Abdullah Mehsud Group” in the Taliban and announced in July 2008 in a letter that was circulated to the media that he would extract revenge from Mr. Baitullah Mehsud. He is a former Khasadar (member of the tribal police) and is active in the Shakai and Jandola areas of South Waziristan.

Interestingly, one powerful Taliban leader, Maulvi Nazir, is secretly supporting Qari Zainuddin Mehsud and the areas of Maulvi Nazir were once again targeted by U.S. drones. Not one drone has been fired upon by Mr. Baitullah Mehsud’s men and that is why many people say he is an American agent.

Qari Zainuddin Mehsud killed Yahya, the younger brother of Baitullah Mehsud, on October 27, 2008 in the Bannu area. In retaliation, Baitullah Mehsud killed Muhammad Yousaf, a close aide of Qari Zainuddin Mehsud, on October 29, 2008 in the Tank area. More than 95 people have been killed from both sides over the past year.

Now Qari Zainuddin Mehsud has become an ally of the Pakistani security forces against Baitullah Mehsud. Qari Zainuddin Mehsud contacted many powerful tribal elders of the Mehsud area recently but most of them are reluctant to cooperate with Qari Zainuddin Mehsud. They ask why if Abdullah Mehsud was killed by the Pakistani security forces, the leader of his group was cooperating with the establishment. Qari Zainuddin Mehsud has no answer to this question. The tribal elders see no difference between Mr. Baitullah Mehsud and Qari Zainuddin Mehsud. They say both are criminals. They fear that the Pakistani establishment first used Baitullah Mehsud against Abdullah Mehsud, and that now they are using Qari Zainuddin Mehsud against Mr. Baitullah Mehsud. They apprehend that ultimately both would be killed. They fear that Qari Hussain will replace Mr. Baitullah Mehsud as commander of the Taliban if he is killed, and that Qari Hussain is more dangerous than Mr. Baitullah Mehsud because he is the head of the suicide squads of Mr. Baitullah Mehsud. The political administration of South Waziristan contacted many tribal elders of the Mehsud area to seek help for Qari Zainuddin Mehsud. One tribal elder cleverly told an official of the administration: “Don’t fool us. Mr. Zardari is assuring his cooperation to NATO and you are asking us to cooperate with a person who is openly telling us to go and fight NATO in Afghanistan.”

Some political allies of Mr. Zardari like Maulana Fazalur Rehman of the JUI-F are again suggesting direct talks with the Taliban, but Mr. Zardari is not listening. Mr. Zardari could ignore Maulana Fazalur Rehman but he should not ignore the whole of Parliament. Maybe Mr. Baitullah Mehsud is a double agent and he must be got rid of, but Mr. Zardari should take him on with the help of Parliament and not with the help of another double agent. Mr. Zardari needs approval and support from Parliament for any operation against the Taliban.

Pakistan can defeat terrorism through a bold and transparent military strategy with the support of a broad-based political front. Double games will no more work.

Note: Since this article was written, news came on June 23 that Qari Zainuddin Mehsud was shot dead.

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