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Uncertain monsoon and agriculture

The rainfall situation in parts of north and northwest India does not look good. Deficient rains threaten agriculture in States like Punjab, Haryana, Uttarakhand, Uttar Pradesh, and Himachal Pradesh, although there is still some hope of a recovery. The India Meteorological Department reports that the country as a whole received “near normal rainfall” during the week ending July 8. Of 36 meteorological sub-divisions, rainfall was normal or higher than normal in 21 and deficient or scanty in 15 during that week. However, it was “deficient by 59 per cent over northwestern India.” If the ‘grain bowl’ States fare any worse, fears over crop failures would be natural. A normal July can account for a third of the season’s total rainfall. Of the four months in the season, July rainfall has the most critical impact on agriculture. So the next two weeks will be crucial. The balancing part, says the IMD, is that the monsoon appears reasonably good in other parts of the country. Should things get worse, paddy — the dominant kharif crop in Punjab and Haryana — will be in trouble. So too will other crops such as pulses, bajra, and jowar. Fodder will be another casualty, with implications for livestock. The excessive use of tubewells is a problem complicated by the erratic power supply in some regions.

Fears of a severe drought are reflected in the sharply rising prices of food items, particularly pulses. Related problems could spring up: drinking water shortages, migrations, and distress sale of cattle and what little produce might remain with the cultivator. Those needing work will discover that the National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme (NREGS) is not really tuned to providing that in the monsoon season. India has made little advance in monsoon management, whether in forecasting or planning for it, over years. But right now, the need is for clear-sighted and firm policy intervention that provides confidence to the people that the system can cope with any contingency. Governments must urgently regulate the use of water and power and control panic-driven misuse. They must rush seed and other inputs to regions that badly need them. They must stamp out hoarding and adopt measures to halt the price rise. They would do well to adopt the practical steps recommended by Dr. M.S. Swaminathan in this newspaper: a compensatory production programme in those regions with better soil moisture at this point, and asking the faculty and students of agricultural universities to leave their classrooms and spend a month with farm families. This will make them more relevant than they have been in a while, aside from deepening and enhancing their learning.

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