Kerala - Thiruvananthapuram   

Kerala population greying fast: study

Thiruvananthapuram: A steady rise in the 60 plus population in Kerala and a staggered population growth rate of below one per cent could have a bearing on the welfare of elders in the State in the coming years.

If the current trend continues for the next few decades, the proportion of the young to the old will undergo a “historic crossover” around 2021 in Kerala, says a recent study.

This steady demographic transition is bound to have a social and economic fallout, making it essential for the government to factor in the welfare of the aged as a major component of policy measures

The demographic study by Sabu Aliyar, a Research Fellow at the Centre for Development Studies (CDS) here, says that with the number of couples opting for a single child or deciding not to have children at all, the age ratio of the State will alter radically.

“In absolute numbers, children below six years in Kerala are on the decline, compared to rest of the country,” he said.

“As Kerala is ahead by 25 years from the rest of the country and in the final stages of demographic transition (low fertility and mortality), the ageing scenario of the State is an issue that merits greater attention.” For instance, on an average, a woman in Kerala gives birth to just 1.6 children and the infant mortality rate, at 14 per 1,000 live births was very low. Though the increasing proportion of elderly is a worldwide and also a national phenomenon, the process is happening much faster in South India, especially in Kerala.

As per the 2001 census, Kerala had 3.3 million elderly people, which was 10.5 per cent of the total population, the highest ratio of aged in the country. The number is expected to increase to 5.7 million by 2021 and 12 million in 2061.

“Our projections indicate that the ageing index for the year 2041 will be 228, five times higher than 2001. It means that in Kerala, the rate of increase among elderly persons will be much higher. In 2061, there are likely to be 476 elderly persons for every 100 children,” the study says.

This would mean that every family has to take care of one child and an aged mother or father or both and the spending on the elderly would be a major component of family budgets.

Kerala is already a State which spends much of its budget on pension and welfare payments to not only retired employees but also a wide spectrum of workers like farmers and farm workers. With the present demographic trend continuing, spending on pension and welfare would go up steeply, which would be a major challenge for future governments.

Right now, the State has four lakh pensioners accounting for 15 per cent of the elderly. – PTI

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