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Tuesday, Aug 11, 2009
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Weatherman: it will be less rain

Special Correspondent

IMD reduces estimate of rainfall during the season to 87 per cent

Deficits unlikely to be wiped out in the coming days
Northwest region falls short by 42 per cent

NEW DELHI: With the monsoon showing no sign of any major recovery, the India Meteorological Department late on Monday decided to reduce its estimate of rainfall during the season to 87 per cent for the country as a whole and for the season in its entirety.

This marks a reduction of six per cent in the last long range forecast issued in June-end, when the agency had predicted a rainfall of 93 per cent.

The forecasts come with a rider of plus or minus four per cent to provide for any error in the forecast models. Rainfall during the season is expected to be between 83 and 93 per cent.

IMD Director General Ajit Tyagi said the scientists have decided to reduce the rainfall estimate considering that there appeared to be no possibility for a major revival in the coming days to wipe out the deficits of the last two months.

The IMD had earlier forecast a rainfall of 101 per cent for August, but keeping in mind what has happened so far and what is expected during the rest of the month, scientists have now reduced the estimates to a mere 90 per cent.

Weak revival

Speaking to the The Hindu from Pune, where he had gone for a meeting with the IMD’s National Climate Centre, responsible for monsoon-related forecasts, Dr. Tyagi said there seems to be possibility of some revival of the monsoon in the next few days. But, it seems to be a weak revival. There could be some improvement later in the month in the wake of the typhoon in China, but one could not be sure, he said. “Anyway, the scientists are of the opinion that the rainfall during the month may not come up to the extent forecast in June-end. We have therefore decided to revise our estimates to 90 per cent.”

Till Sunday, the cumulative rainfall since the beginning of the season was only 72 per cent of the long period average. The meteorological northwest region, comprising Delhi, Haryana, Punjab, Chandigarh, Uttar Pradesh Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Rajasthan and Jammu and Kashmir continues to be worst-hit with a deficit of 42 per cent.

The north-east region comprising Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal and the north-eastern States came next with a deficiency of 36 per cent. The south peninsular region, comprising Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Andhra Pradesh, Lakshadweep and Andaman and Nicobar, came third with a deficiency of 22 per cent.

Central India, comprising Madhya Pradesh, Orissa, Gujarat, Maharashtra, Goa and Chhattisgarh, was the best of the lot. But, even that region had a deficiency of 19 per cent.

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