The Hindu : Kerala / Thiruvananthapuram News : Down to the wire in bitter bypoll battles

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Thursday, Nov 05, 2009
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Kerala - Thiruvananthapuram

Down to the wire in bitter bypoll battles

C. Gouridasan Nair

LDF may have got its act together, but outcomes are by no means certain

THIRUVANANTHAPURAM: As it faced the Lok Sabha elections five months ago, the ruling Left Democratic Front (LDF) was a house in disarray. At least three of the Front constituents were at one another’s throat over seats and the choice of allies, and the alliance as a whole was significantly distanced from the people.

As the public campaign for the three Assembly byelections in Kannur, Ernakulam and Alappuzha draws to a close on Thursday, the picture is relatively more positive for the LDF, though there is no certainty that the outcomes would go in its favour.

All the three constituencies have traditionally stood by the UDF and the byelection results would have no impact on the government. Even if the Opposition United Democratic Front (UDF) wins all the three seats, it would only go to show that the public apathy towards the LDF has not waned.

On the contrary, if the LDF is able to wrest at least one of the seats from its rival, the ruling Front would be able to cite it as the sign of a reversal in its fortunes.

From the way the LDF campaign has progressed so far, notwithstanding the manner in which it has been put on the defensive in Kannur, there is sufficient evidence for the alliance having put up a better act this time.

Acrimonious one

These byelections would go down as one of the most acrimonious in the State’s recent electoral history what with serious allegations being raised, particularly by the UDF, about large-scale enrolment of bogus voters and the Election Commission stepping in to remove the Kannur Collector and deploying a large contingent of Central forces, especially in Kannur.

It has been a veritable verbal duel between the two sides over the last few days over the deployment of Central forces and capping it was Chief Minister V. S. Achuthanandan’s frontal attack on the Congress over the issue.

Although his statements came in for sharp criticism from different quarters, it also showed the LDF’s ability to turn a potentially embarrassing issue into a strategy for political polarisation.

There are clear signs of communal polarisation in all the three constituencies but, as always, this is quite nuanced with none taking a public stand on their electoral preferences. The presence of the Social Democratic Party of India (SDPI) candidate in Kannur and the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) candidate in Alappuzha has added to the uncertainty.

The National Development Front (NDF), which had reinvented itself as SDPI recently, had backed the UDF in the Lok Sabha elections.

Its presence in Kannur should, therefore, be a matter of worry for the UDF and there would be a lot of effort to neutralise its impact.

The rationale for the PDP’s presence in the fray in Alappuzha is clearer as it is a sworn enemy of the CPI, whose candidate G. Krishnaprasad is in the fray there. But how it proposes to help the UDF and its candidate A.A. Shukoor by cutting into the Opposition alliance’s supposed Muslim vote base in the constituency is rather difficult to fathom.

The heat and dust in Kannur is predictable given the prestige that the CPI(M) attaches to the constituency and its determination to win it regardless of the heavy flak that it has received over voter enrolment.

That the UDF has chosen to field A.P. Abdullakutty, who was expelled from the CPI(M), against the CPI(M) nominee M.V. Jayarajan has only added to the intensity of the battle here.

It is certainly so in the Ernakulam constituency where party nominee P.N. Seenulal is trying to achieve what many consider the impossible by wresting the constituency from the UDF and its candidate Dominic Presentation.

Whether he wins or loses, the CPI(M) can take credit for having chosen a person with working class background to represent it in this heartland of trade, industry and commerce.

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