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Monsoon to begin withdrawing in two to three days: Weatherman

P.Sunderarajan


Bountiful rains in most parts in last four months

Normally, monsoon should withdraw by October 15


NEW DELHI: The southwest monsoon is all set to bid farewell, after giving bountiful rains across most parts of the country over the past four months.

According to India Meteorological Department, “conditions are becoming favourable for the withdrawal of the system from parts of northwest India during the next two to three days.”

Normally, the system should have begun to withdraw from around September 1. But, this year it has been delayed by over three weeks following the development of what is called La Nina condition over the Pacific Ocean.

A coupled ocean-atmosphere phenomenon, La Nina arises when the sea surface temperature across the equatorial eastern central Pacific Oceans dips three to five degrees below the normal for that region. The name originates from Spanish, where it means the girl. It is the counterpart of El Nino, which arises when the sea surface temperature in the region is three to five degrees above normal. El Nino also originates from Spanish and it means the boy.

While La Nina is beneficial to Indian monsoon, as it can bring in more rains, El Nino is not good as it can reduce the precipitation. Even as the monsoon is set to withdraw in two to three days, it would take some time before it withdraws from the entire country and make way for the winter or the north-east monsoon. Normally, it should withdraw from the entire country by October 15.

This year has been one of the best in terms of realisation of rain during the south-west monsoon. As of Wednesday, the country as a whole has received four per cent more rainfall than the long period average. But, the precipitation has not been totally uniform across the country.

As much as 30 per cent of the 597 meteorological districts, for which data is available have recorded deficient rainfall : 11 districts [two per cent] still had a deficiency of over 60 per cent, while 166 others [or 28 per cent] had a deficiency of between 20 per cent and 60 per cent.

Jharkhand has had the worst deal: it has recorded a deficiency of 38 per cent. Gangetic West Bengal has recorded a deficiency of 28 per cent, Assam-Meghalaya region 23 per cent, east Uttar Pradesh 21 per cent and Bihar 20 per cent.

In contrast, Rajasthan has had one of the best season: west Rajasthan, where the Thar desert is located, has had 71 per cent more rainfall than the normal, while east Rajasthan has recorded a rainfall of six per cent more than the normal.

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